431
FXUS62 KCHS 301107
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
BY DAYBREAK A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING FRONT. ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, WHILE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, TODAY WILL FEATURE CLEARING
SKIES AND BREEZY NW WINDS. THE CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY WINDS
WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FAR
INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COASTLINE AROUND DAYBREAK.
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REBOUND
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S, STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE
TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE, WITH THE 00Z 10/30 HREF SHOWING AN
80% PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 25 MPH. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 8 AM
FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND
AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COASTLINE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BECOME POSITIONED
OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 60S. FRIDAY NIGHT, CONDITIONS
WILL FEATURE CLEAR SKY, DEEP DRY AIR, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
GIVEN PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS
MAY FAVOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND GA AND SC.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. H85 TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY
WARM EAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW. THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH WEAK WAA SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS SE
GA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES THAT A DEEP H5 555DM LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS1DEG SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AT THE SFC, LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S., POSSIBLY LIFTING A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATES WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE NBM INDICATES MUCH LOWER COVERAGE,
SUPPORTING ONLY SCHC POPS WITH LIGHT QPF. DEEP LOW PRESSURE MAY
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN PUSHING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE DEEP CLOSED LOW.
TEMPERATURES MAY RECOVER INTO THE LOW 70S BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: PREVAILING VFR AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. GUSTS WILL WANE WITH NIGHTFALL TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
CLEARING SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS
THE AREA.
MARINE
TODAY: A COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE MARINE WATERS BY DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. NW WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS POSSIBLE IN ALL MARINE ZONES OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE
WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, INTO TONIGHT. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4 TO 5 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6 TO 7 FT
IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS.
TONIGHT: NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY LATE TONIGHT,
WITH ONLY THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS REMAINING IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MARINE
ZONES ON FRIDAY, WINDS DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY, FALLING BELOW 6 FT FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE SCHEDULED TO END BY MID-DAY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT, WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STARTING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS ON MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: MODEST SWELL ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TODAY, MAINTAINING A
MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL LOCAL SC/GA BEACHES. A
MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES ON
FRIDAY, LOW RISK TO THE SOUTH.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352-
354.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...CPM/NED
MARINE...CPM/NED
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