661
FXUS62 KCHS 311049
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD YIELD WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GIVEN FULL SUN AND SOME
DOWNSLOPE FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS SE GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY.
TONIGHT: THE CENTER OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER SUNSET, WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOULD DECOUPLE, WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. PROVIDED CLEAR SKY, DEEP DRY AIR, AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS, CONDITIONS SHOULD YIELD STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME INLAND RURAL AREAS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY
FROST.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON SATURDAY.
ALOFT, A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE DROPPING OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY. AFTER A CHILLY START, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO RISE TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 EVEN UNDER FULL
SUNSHINE. THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT,
RANGING FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR TO LOW/MID 50S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE WAVE. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ON
SUNDAY, WITH MOST GUIDANCE HINTING AT A LOW DEVELOPING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THEN
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY COULD SEE RAIN POTENTIAL
DECREASE AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS THE AREA, BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THAT FEATURE SO FORECAST DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE REFINED. TEMPERATURES WILL LEAN ON THE COOLER SIDE
OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD,
BUT MOISTURE LOOKS LACKING SO A DRY FORECAST IS HIGHLIGHTED AT THIS
TIME. COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START WILL MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR THROUGH SUNDAY. FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE WNW
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
SHOULD FAVOR VALUES LESS THAN 15 KTS. BY LATE TONIGHT, WINDS SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BEGIN THE DAY
BETWEEN 3 TO 6 FT, THEN DECREASING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM, RANGING
BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OUTER
GA WATERS AND CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WIND END THIS
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: FAIRLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS TO START
THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FEET.
A COASTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY, POSSIBLY INTO A WEAK
LOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS. GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AND
CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ELEVATED TIDE CYCLES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING FULL
MOON AND PERIGEE. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA
COAST, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
BASE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM/NED
MARINE...ETM/NED
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