651
FXUS62 KCHS 071235
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
CANDLER, BRYAN AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH
COUNTIES. REGIONAL WEBCAMS, SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING STEADILY IN THESE AREAS. THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FOR TATTNALL,
LONG, EVANS, INLAND LIBERTY AND INLAND MCINTOSH.
TODAY: ALOFT, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FURTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A WEAK WARM FRONT-LIKE FEATURE LIFTS TO
THE NORTH AND DISSIPATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA
WITHIN A REGION OF SOUTHWEST FLOW POSITIONED BETWEEN THE HIGH
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TO THE RIO GRANDE. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED THERE AND DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH NO AVAILABLE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. EXPECT A MILD DAY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TONIGHT: THE SETUP WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH THE AREA SITUATED
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. THE BULK OF
THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE NIGHT WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS OUTPACE THE FRONT AND TRY TO PUSH INTO THE INLAND
TIER OF COUNTIES. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON A DIMINISHING TREND
SHOULDN'T PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. IT WILL
BE VERY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA INTO EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA, WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARDS INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NC/VA COAST.
CHANCES FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS THEY LOSE FORCING FOR ASCENT, SO EXPECT CLOUD
COVERAGE TO BE DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WE MAKE ANOTHER
RUN TOWARDS 80 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE PREVIOUS STALLED FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARDS INTO THE WARM FRONT, WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT LEFT IN ITS
WAKES RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST MODELS BRING DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA, BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING AS WE MAKE
ANOTHER RUN FOR 80 DEGREES, WITH SEMI-BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE TEENS.
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS OUT AHEAD OF AN STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT.
MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR, SO DESPITE UP TO
1000 J/KG OF CAPE, SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, WITH LOWEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME
OF THE AI ALGORITHMS ARE SUGGESTING THERE WILL BE VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT EVEN THAT SEEMS OVER-DONE AS THE
STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SWINGING THE WINDS
AROUND TO BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY, WHILE THE WINDS ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE MAIN
TROUGH AXIS. RAIN CHANCES END IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH THEY LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO UPPER
40S ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE SUN RISES ON MONDAY.
WHILE MONDAY IS LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY, IT WILL BE A RATHER
UNPLEASANT DAY TO BE OUTSIDE AS COLD-AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP THE WINDS BREEZY ALL DAY.
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S, GUSTS INTO THE 20S WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A TOUCH COOLER THAN THE TEMPERATURES ALONE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS COLD AIR WILL BE SLIDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS,
FURTHER INTENSIFYING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST HAVE ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SEEING THE
FREEZING MARK, RISING UP INTO THE 90 TO 95% RANGE THE FURTHER
INLAND YOU GO. AREAS WEST OF I-95 HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF SEEING
TEMPERATURES BELOW 30S. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY AT
ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES MAY BE IN JEOPARDY, THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE RECORDS. WHILE CONDITIONS FOR FROST
ARE NOT IDEAL GIVEN THE DRY AIR MASS, NEAR TO SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, SO BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE NECESSARY
PRECAUTIONS FOR ANY SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
TUESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
MONDAY, HOWEVER STILL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, ONLY REACHING
INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. TUESDAY NIGHT FEATURES TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING FAR INLAND, WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE
COAST. FROST/FREEZE COULD BE REQUIRED, UNLESS MONDAY NIGHT'S
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ENDS THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE REGION.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT MID-WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
CLOSER TO NOVEMBER NORMALS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS AND KJZI,
WHILE KSAV HAS BEEN IN AND OUT OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MOSTLY
WITH SHALLOW FOG. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNS THE FIRST
COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD AND WHETHER OR NOT NEARBY FOG AND
STRATUS WILL EXPAND INTO KSAV. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT THE FOG AND STRATUS ISN'T EXPANDING AND THAT KSAV WILL
AVOID MORE SIGNIFICANT CEILING HEIGHTS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. WE HAVE KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ON
THE WEAKER SIDE, GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT, THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PICK UP A BIT WITH 10-15
KNOTS BECOMING MORE COMMON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO MOSTLY AVERAGE
2-3 FEET, PERHAPS UP TO 4 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AND SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT, WITH WINDS INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON SUNDAY INTO THE UPPER TEENS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH A SURGE
IN NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. WINDS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS,
THOUGH THERE EXISTS POTENTIAL FOR EVEN HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED, SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
GALES, LEADING TO A GALE WATCH POSSIBLE BEING NEEDED. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES LOOK TO DECREASE TO BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, FURTHER DECREASING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
UPCOMING MORNING HIGH TIDE (~9 AM): LOW TIDE RECENTLY OCCURRED
AT CHARLESTON AND TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE FINALLY TURNED POSITIVE
IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE AT 7.08 FT MLLW, WE WILL HIT THE MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD AS LONG AS THE DEPARTURE ISN'T NEGATIVE.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DEPARTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
HIGH TIDE AS THE NORTHEAST FLOW TAKES HOLD. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
A PEAK TIDE IN THE 7.2-7.4 FT MLLW RANGE. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
AT FORT PULASKI, WE EXPECT TO FALL A LITTLE SHORT OF THE MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD THRESHOLD. EXPECTING A PEAK TIDE OF 7.3 FT MLLW AT
CHARLESTON, OUR LOCAL FORECAST TOOL BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
SUPPORTS A PEAK TIDE OF 9.3 FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.
BEYOND FRIDAY WE DON'T EXPECT ANY FURTHER FLOODING ISSUES AS
THE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES DROP OFF ABOUT 0.2 FT EACH DAY AND WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ114-115-
137-138-140.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ049-
050.
MARINE...NONE.
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