820
FXUS62 KCHS 071741
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE 20S...
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: EARLIER FOG/STRATUS HAS MIXED OUT WITH SUNNY
SKIES PREVAILING. SOME LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS ALONG THE GEORGIA
COULD COULD BRUSH THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND BEACHES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTH. SOME SHALLOW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS IS LIKELY OVER SOME LAND AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOWER 80S LOOK ON TRACK.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT, ONLY TO GIVE WAY TO A SLOWING COLD
FRONT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR IN
SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
BRUSHING THE FAR WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED HEALTHY 925-850 HPA LOW-LEVEL JET THAT IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TO THE WEST AS THE TAIL END OF A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WEAK ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS NOTED, SO
A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT
SHOWERS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER TYPE. POPS 20-40% WERE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THIS AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A LIGHT QPF.
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN- FREE THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S, EXCEPT MID 60S AT THE
BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE ON SATURDAY, WHILE A
SURFACE FRONT STALLS JUST INLAND OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FAR INLAND AROUND DAYBREAK,
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY FEATURING A DRY FORECAST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION, DUE TO THE SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MAKE A RUN FOR 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS, WITH
SOME LOW 80S POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NOVEMBER NORMALS, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG AND DEEPEN ON SUNDAY AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL MAKE A RUN FOR 80 ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS,
WHILE DEW POINTS ALSO REACH INTO THE MID 60S. SHOWERS AND MAYBE
A THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR. WHILE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DEPICTING ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 800
J/KG, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF DRY AIR. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL WILL BE FAR INLAND, AS THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE
AS THEY APPROACH THE COASTLINE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM NEAR 70 AT NIGHTFALL TO THE 40S
BY DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S,
DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 20 MPH ARE
LIKELY MONDAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG AND DEEPEN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD-BREAKING COLD. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S FAR
INLAND, WITH LOW 30S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ALL THREE
CLIMATE SITES WILL HAVE THEIR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
CHALLENGED, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A FREEZE
WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED MONDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY NW WINDS WILL YIELD WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S
FOR MOST AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY SEEING WIND CHILL
VALUES BELOW 20. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE AGAIN TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S, WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN THE FORECAST. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S INLAND, WITH
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COASTLINE. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY NIGHT, UNLESS MONDAY NIGHT'S
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ENDS THE GROWING SEASON ACROSS THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A WARMING
PATTERN, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NOVEMBER NORMALS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AT THE
SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
07/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 08/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR INTO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
POSSIBLY BRINGING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, DIMINISHING INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS, BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOSER TO 10-15 KT AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH A SURGE IN NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FORECAST.
WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS, OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE GUSTS
COULD APPROACH 25 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS TO SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS, WITH A GALE WATCH/WARNING
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS. SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7 TO 8 FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE
GA WATERS.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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