697
FXUS62 KCHS 080736
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
236 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WEAK POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUD COVERAGE, WITH WINDS REMAINING JUST MIXY ENOUGH TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, SCATTERED TO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING, THOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT EXACTLY THE RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL LOOK
LIKE AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE WEAK POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUING ALONG WITH SOME INSTABILITY, THE NBM
ONLY GAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS, PRIMARILY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THE PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN WOULD
EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS WELL, SO GIVEN
THE SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT CONTINUING DID EXTEND THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IN BOTH SPACE AND TIME MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA.
WHILE WE'LL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN RAIN COVERAGE, CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS HAVE NOTICABLY INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS DUE TO CONTINUED MODEST LIFT FROM THE POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION, DECENT INSTABILITY OF 750-1500 J/KG, HIGH SHEAR OF UP TO
50 KNOTS, AND K-INDEX VALUES IN THE MID-30S. SPC NOTED A SIMILAR
TREND, AND EVEN INTRODUCED A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. GIVEN THE LACK OF POPS FROM THE NBM, WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO 30% TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE WARM-AIR ADVECTION AND BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO PEAK
INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, WHILE THOSE ALONG THE COAST WILL STAY IN
THE MID 70S.
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY LIMITED TO
INLAND AREAS. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES, AND WILL KEEP
WINDS ON THE SEMI-BREEZY SIDE. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARMER SIDE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S,
WARMEST ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: A DEEP 525DM CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTH TO THE
GULF, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING TO THE WEST. AT THE SFC, A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING
THE MORNING, REACHING PA/NY BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
TIMED TO REACH SE GA AND SC LOWCOUNTRY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE AROUND 80 ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW
80S ACROSS SE GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
INVERSION WILL REMAIN AROUND H75 THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON, THE INVERSION SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, CAPE VALUES MAY RANGE BETWEEN 500-800
J/KG. SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH
6KM BULK SHEAR REACHING AROUND 55 KTS BY SUNSET. ML/AI GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE REGION MAY SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR 15-30 PERCENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH 25 NM OF ANY GIVEN POINT. SPC CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS
THE REGION WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH STRONG
CAA EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
IN FACT, NAM12 INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS FALL BELOW 0C FOR PORTIONS
OF INLAND GA AND SC. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND GA TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
ON MONDAY, GFS INDICATES THAT 12Z H85 TEMPS ALONG A LINE FROM KSAV
TO KCHS WILL RANGE AROUND 4C. H85 TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL THROUGH
THE DAY, FALLING TO AROUND -4C BY SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO WARM WITH THE ONGOING STRONG CAA, DESPITE THE FULL SUN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. THE SURGE OF CAA MAY LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT, THE H5 TROUGH SHOULD RIPPLE OVER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CENTER OF 1030 MB HIGH SHOULD
REMAIN OVER DEEP SOUTH, MAINTAINING A 2 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING COLD LLVL THICKNESSES AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STEADY COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT. USING A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE 20S ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95, VALUES IN THE LOW 30S TO THE EAST. ONLY AREAS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AREA FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE RECORD
LOW VALUES, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. IN ADDITION, WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH, YIELDING WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S, SOME POCKETS IN THE UPPER TEENS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST HARD FREEZE SHOULD END THE GROWING SEASON FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TUESDAY, THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SOURCED FROM CENTRAL CANADA
WILL PUSH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. IN FACT, WE COULD SEE A NEW RECORD LOW MAX AT KCHS, SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW. IN ADDITION, DEWPOINTS MAY FAVOR VALUES IN THE TEENS
ACROSS SE GA TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS SE GA TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY.
FORTUNATELY, THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-
95, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS BY
THURSDAY, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER DRY NW MID-LEVEL
FLOW.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
08/06Z: VFR THROUGH 09/06Z AT ALL TAF SITES. AREAS IN INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY SEE SOME MVFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING
HOURS, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SAV TERMINAL. LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK MAY BE PUSHING INTO
THE REGION FROM EASTERN GEORGIA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR INTO THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY BRINGING BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY NW
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY, DIMINISHING INTO
TUESDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHERLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS, BUT WILL
INCREASE CLOSER TO 10-15 KT AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD
SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT, WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN TO
20 TO 25 KTS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, REACH 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WITH 6 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT, A SURGE OF CAA WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ABOVE 25 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW
30S ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SPEEDS APPEAR CLOSE TO GALE FORCE
MONDAY EVENING OUTSIDE THE CHS HARBOR, WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE HARBOR. SEAS SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT, RANGING BETWEEN 4
TO 8 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS, WITH A
GALE WATCH/WARNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A PORTION OF THE
WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...APT
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...APT/NED
MARINE...APT/NED
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