400
FXUS62 KCHS 081731
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
...A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S...
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF A 850-700 HPA SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS
GEORGIA. MODIFIED RAP SOUNDINGS YIELD MODERATE LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE 1500-2000 J/KG WITH IN A MODERATELY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40
KT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MUTED, A
FEW STRONG TSTMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE AND LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE THE
MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. THE RISK FOR TSTMS REACHING SEVERE LEVELS
REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE NORTH AND UVVS DIMINISH.
TONIGHT: A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF A
POWERFUL SHORTWAVE THAT WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
COMBINATION OF A MODEST WIND FIELD ALOFT COUPLED WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH, A WEAK
LOW OVER VIRGINIA AND AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL KEEP
THE BOUNDARY LAYER FAIRLY WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY WARM NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH THE PRE-
FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS POISED TO ONLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER 60S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST. A FEW SHOWERS
OWING TO LINGERING WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
KEEP A RISK FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. POPS 20-30% WERE
HIGHLIGHTED INLAND TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT THE QPF SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON SUNDAY WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY EVENING. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION, WILL RESULT IN A
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MOISTURE
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS WEAK, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEFORE
THE FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IT'S STILL POSSIBLE
THAT A THIN, BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS COULD MOVE
THROUGH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. LOWS COULD DIP BELOW 40 FAR INLAND, WITH
UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE SC/GA COAST.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WE EXPECT A SOLID FREEZE ACROSS THE
AREA, POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. ALSO, IN POCKETS
OF SOUTHEAST GA THE WIND CHILL COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 20
DEGREES, TRIGGERING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. FREEZE HEADLINES
ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG AND
WEST OF I-95, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST. WINDS MIGHT
WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FROST DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MID NOVEMBER
NORMALS BY THURSDAY, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER NW MID-
LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
08/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI: CONVECTIVE TRENDS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MUCH OF THIS MAY DIMINISH PRIOR TO REACHING KCHS AND
KJZI IN THE 19-20Z TIME FRAME. VCSH MAY HOLD FOR NOW, BUT A LAST
MINUTE CHANGE MAY BE NEEDED PENDING RADAR TRENDS AT ISSUANCE
TIME. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS COULD
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDLANDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME OF THIS COULD EXPAND INTO SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND POSSIBLY KCHS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE
ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND/OR SOUTHEAST THIS AREA OF STRATUS WILL
GET IS UNCLEAR, SO IT WAS NOT MENTIONED FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE
GIVEN ONLY THE 08/12Z NAM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WAS PINGING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS RIGHT AT DAYBREAK.
KSAV: CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSE TO OR EXITING KSAV BY 18Z AS THE
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MEANDERS NORTHEAST. SOME MENTION OF
TSRA MAY NEED TO BE HELD ONTO PENDING LAST MINUTE RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS COULD
EXPAND NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE ON
WHETHER STRATUS WILL REACH KSAV REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AND THERE ARE
MIXED OUTCOMES NOTED IN THIS MORNING'S STATISTICAL GUIDANCE, SO
NO MENTION OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS WERE INTRODUCED FOR THIS
CYCLE. THIS WILL BE REEVALUATED FOR THE 09/00Z TAF CYCLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY NW WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY
EVENING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE ARE NO CONCERNS. SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS AND THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO
BEACH NEARSHORE LEG, BUT DURATIONS DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
4 FT OR LESS.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SW WINDS SUNDAY WILL TURN TO THE NW
AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
STRONGEST MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DURING WHICH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
WE COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS AND NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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