539
FXUS62 KCHS 090600
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS TO OUR AREA THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER FOR THIS CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE MORNING WITH WINDS
REMAINING JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG MOSTLY AS PATCHY,
THOUGH WIND PROTECTED AREAS MAY SEE A TOUCH MORE COVERAGE. HIGH
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES, ONLY GIVING SCATTERED 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR VISIBILITY TO DIP BELOW 3 MILES. GIVEN
THE CONTINUED WARM-AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, OVERNIGHT LOWS BY DAYBREAK LOOK TO
SIMILARLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR DAYS WILL BE
MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT TODAY WILL STILL
FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S,
WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS COURTESY OF THE CONTINUED WARM
AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND COMBINED WITH A
SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WE'LL SEE
RENEWED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH GENERALLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS MAJORITY OF THE AREA, ASIDE
FROM FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, IN A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL)
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS GENERALLY WHAT MOST OF THE
AI/ML ALGORITHMS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
HOWEVER, AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
LIMIT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD HINDER MAJORITY
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, KEEPING RAINFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
BRINGING AN END TO ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS. COLD-AIR ADVECTION
COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, GUSTING INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE BY
DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S INLAND, AND
MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH
DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WE EXPECT A SOLID FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA, POTENTIALLY ALL
THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. ALSO, IN POCKETS OF SOUTHEAST GA THE WIND
CHILL COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 20 DEGREES, TRIGGERING A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY. FREEZE HEADLINES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
MOULTRIE MAY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95, WITH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES MODERATE
ON WEDNESDAY, RISING WELL INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS BY
THURSDAY, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER NW MID-LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
09/06Z: WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST, BRIEF MVFR
CIGS CAN'T BE RULED, WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR VISBYS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
TODAY: SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY RANGING FROM 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT,
GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WEAKEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE TO EDISTO, AND THEREFORE DO NOT HAVE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA), WHEREAS THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM EDISTO
TO ALTAMAHA SOUND DO HAVE AN SCA GO INTO EFFECT SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OFFSHORE SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND WILL SEE THE STRONGEST
WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS, WHERE AN SCA IS ALSO IN AFFECT STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED MARINE: THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page