111
FXUS62 KCHS 091340
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
840 AM EST SUN NOV 9 2025
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING MUCH
COLDER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE: NEAR TERM GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH THE 09/06Z HREF IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A MORE CONSOLIDATED SIGNAL FOR A LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A CORRIDOR OF STRONG UVVS
BETWEEN 850-500 HPA DURING THIS TIME, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACH OF 700 HPA SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX OVER THE
MIDLANDS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY LOOKS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, THE LACK OF INSTABILITY COULD BE OVERCOME
BY INCREASING QUASI-GEOSTROPIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE.
POPS WERE INCREASED TO 40-50% ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR TO
HELP TREND THE FORECAST, BUT THIS IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN SOME
GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY THERE BE NEEDED
FOR THE NOON FORECAST PACKAGE.
STRONG WIND FIELDS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, BUT THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED. HOWEVER, WIND FIELDS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY IF LOCALIZED CORRIDORS OF
HIGHER INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
LOOKS HIGHEST BETWEEN 5-10PM.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR DAYS
WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT TODAY
WILL STILL FEATURE WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S, WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS IS COURTESY OF
THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AND COMBINED WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WE'LL SEE RENEWED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
GENERALLY UP TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 40-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR,
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
SPC HAS MAJORITY OF THE AREA, ASIDE FROM FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, IN A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 (MARGINAL) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS GENERALLY WHAT MOST OF THE AI/ML
ALGORITHMS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING COULD BE POSSIBLE TODAY. HOWEVER,
AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
LIMIT UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD HINDER
MAJORITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, KEEPING RAINFALL CHANCES
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS, BRINGING AN END TO ANY REMAINING SHOWERS/STORMS. COLD-AIR
ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, GUSTING INTO THE 20
TO 25 MPH RANGE BY DAYBREAK. OVERNIGHT LOWS REACH DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 30S INLAND, AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 50S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WE EXPECT A SOLID FREEZE ACROSS THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. ALSO, IN POCKETS OF
SOUTHEAST GA THE WIND CHILL COULD BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 20 DEGREES,
TRIGGERING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. FREEZE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR MOULTRIE MAY BE NEEDED. TUESDAY NIGHT, CLEAR
SKIES WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO AROUND 30
DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE
EAST. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY, RISING WELL INTO THE
60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MID NOVEMBER NORMALS BY
THURSDAY, REMAINING NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER NW MID-LEVEL FLOW.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
09/12Z: WHILE MOST AREAS WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST, BRIEF
IFR/MVFR CIGS CAN'T BE RULED FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOUR, WITH SOME
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK,
WITH PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
AND MONDAY EVENING.
MARINE
TODAY: SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY RANGING FROM 10-15 KNOTS WILL TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT, GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WEAKEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE TO EDISTO, AND THEREFORE
DO NOT HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA), WHEREAS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS FROM EDISTO TO ALTAMAHA SOUND DO HAVE AN SCA GO INTO
EFFECT SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. OFFSHORE SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND WILL SEE THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS, WHERE AN SCA
IS ALSO IN AFFECT STARTING AT MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS OUR COASTAL
WATERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD DUE TO WINDS AND
SEAS. GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND GALE WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
AND BEYOND.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
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