439
FXUS62 KCHS 101722
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1222 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ALOFT THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
UNDER A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. DESPITE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WILL LIKELY MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THAN IT IS.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE AS
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE LOW 20S INLAND, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT
ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES COULD BE CHALLENGED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ELEVATED, YIELDING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 WEST OF I-95 (WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT) AND LOW TO MID 20S EAST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, DEEP TROUGHING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.1-0.2" RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
(11/12Z) WHICH WOULD BE WELL BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE
DAILY MIN ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST IS
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN UNUSUALLY COLD DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER AND CERTAINLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE DAY WILL START WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DAILY RECORD LOWS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SC AND BARELY INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. SUCH
VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR
DAILY RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE COLD, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WE SHOULD SEE A NICE REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. FINALLY, THURSDAY SHOULD GET BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING BUILDS AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS: PREVAILING VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS COULD
APPROACH 30 KNOTS THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING THE NW WINDS SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 12 KNOTS,
WITH FEW GUSTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, YIELDING
A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 35 TO UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE GUSTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, PEAKING LATE TONIGHT AROUND 4 TO 6
FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7 TO 9 FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM
OFFSHORE GA WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL COME TO AN END
AND WE COULD NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A FEW HOURS. WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, MAINLY IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR BOTH TODAY AND TUESDAY AS
RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 30% TODAY AND 25% ON TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, NW WIND GUSTS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20
TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 MPH ON TUESDAY. THE RAINFALL
FROM YESTERDAY EVENING WILL LIKELY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME
CONCERNS, WITH PARTNERS INDICATING FUELS ARE NOT DRY ENOUGH FOR
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
MONDAY NIGHT'S FREEZE WILL NOT BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD FOR ALL
THREE CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR INFORMATIONAL
PURPOSES.
KCHS: OCTOBER 25, 1937
KCXM: NOVEMBER 3, 1954
KSAV: OCTOBER 27, 1962
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-137-138.
SC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ040-042>044-047.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
352-374.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ354.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...BSH/CPM
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