219
FXUS62 KCHS 102344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION (CAA) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND
A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. ALOFT THE REGION WILL REMAIN POSITIONED
UNDER A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE AS
GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS FORECAST TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET
INTO THE LOW 20S INLAND, WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AT
ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES COULD BE CHALLENGED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN ELEVATED, YIELDING WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO AROUND 20 WEST OF I-95 (WHERE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT) AND LOW TO MID 20S EAST OF I-95.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, DEEP TROUGHING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW RETURNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT, PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 0.1-0.2" RANGE TUESDAY MORNING
(11/12Z) WHICH WOULD BE WELL BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE
DAILY MIN ACCORDING TO THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THE FORECAST IS
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN UNUSUALLY COLD DAY FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER AND CERTAINLY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR.
THE DAY WILL START WITH WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIKELY
DAILY RECORD LOWS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SC AND BARELY INTO THE LOW 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. SUCH
VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR
DAILY RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE COLD, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WE SHOULD SEE A NICE REBOUND FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA. FINALLY, THURSDAY SHOULD GET BACK TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING BUILDS AND SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, EASING
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST, YIELDING A PINCHED
PRESSURE GRADIENT. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 35 TO UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
25 TO 30 KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, PEAKING LATE TONIGHT AROUND 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7 TO 9 FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ON A DIMINISHING
TREND THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. GALE WARNINGS WILL COME TO AN END
AND WE COULD NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A FEW HOURS. WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE AND CONDITIONS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, MAINLY IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR TUESDAY AS RH VALUES DROP
TO AROUND 25%. ADDITIONALLY, NW WIND GUSTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 15 MPH ON TUESDAY. THE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY HELP ALLEVIATE SOME CONCERNS, WITH PARTNERS INDICATING
FUELS ARE NOT DRY ENOUGH FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS
TIME.
CLIMATE
TONIGHT'S FREEZE WILL NOT BE THE EARLIEST ON RECORD FOR ALL
THREE CLIMATE SITES. BELOW ARE THE RECORDS FOR INFORMATIONAL
PURPOSES.
KCHS: OCTOBER 25, 1937
KCXM: NOVEMBER 3, 1954
KSAV: OCTOBER 27, 1962
UPCOMING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 29/1943
KCXM: 32/1913
KSAV: 31/1968
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 10 (MONDAY):
KCHS: 46/1991
KCXM: 47/1991
KSAV: 49/1968
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-
114>119-137>141.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-137-138.
SC...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR SCZ040-042>044-047.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/CPM
MARINE...BSH/CPM
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