322
FXUS62 KCHS 111421
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
EXPECT COLD, BREEZY, AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WIDESPREAD FREEZE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. A PNS HAS BEEN ISSUED ENDING THE GROWING SEASON THIS
YEAR. FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WATCHES/WARNINGS WILL RESUME
MARCH 1, 2026.
STRONG RADIATIONAL HEATING TODAY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO GET US OUT OF
THESE WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND AS A RESULT WE MAY ALSO
BREAK RECORD LOW MAXES (COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DATE) AS
TEMPERATURES ONLY REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AS THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN GA WHICH
WILL RELAX THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SLIDES
SOUTH OF THE REGION, SHIFTING THE LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME OUT OF
SOUTHWEST. WITH A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION IN PLACE AND NO CLOUD
COVERAGE, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BRING THE REGION BACK DOWN INTO
THE LOWER 30S ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S EAST
OF I-95. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED FREEZE LIKELY ENDING THE GROWING
SEASON, NOT ANTICIPATING ADDITIONAL FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS AT THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS, THUS ALSO NOT REQUIRING
AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE TRIES TO PASS THROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF A AMPLIFIED UPPER-
LVL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE AND
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL. A RAIN-FREE
FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY
WITH PWATS RANGING NEAR 0.5 INCHES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A DRY, COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY MORNING, BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT WITH
THIS BESIDES ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF DRY, COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT BREEZY WITH SPEEDS
RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY COUPLE OF NIGHTS LOOK TO BE IN-STORE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD, HOWEVER IT LOOKS
LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS UPPER-LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE WARM-UP WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS - VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL BE
REMAINING LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS
EVENING, EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
REMAINING LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THE MORNING, WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO HAZARDOUS SEAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS,
INCLUDING THE 6 FT SEAS. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT THE
WESTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH SEAS DROPPING INTO 2 TO 4 FT
RANGE. THIS EVENING, EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, REMAINING LIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS 1 TO 3
FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN UP AND LEAD TO THE RETURN OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS APPROACH
GUSTS OF 25 KT IN THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 4 FT ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR TODAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO
AROUND 25%. ADDITIONALLY, NW WIND GUSTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY. THE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HELP
ALLEVIATE SOME CONCERNS, WITH PARTNERS INDICATING FUELS ARE NOT
DRY ENOUGH FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
THIS MORNING, KSAV MIN TEMPERATURE WAS 28 DEGREES, BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 31 DEGREES SET IN 1968. THE MIN TEMPERATURE
AT KCHS WAS 29 DEGREES, TIES WITH THE RECORD SET IN 1943. KCXM
MIN TEMPERATURE WAS 32 DEGREES, TIES WITH THE RECORD SET IN
1913.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ354-374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...APT/DENNIS
MARINE...APT/DENNIS
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