208
FXUS62 KCHS 111723
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1223 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. BY LATE TONIGHT, THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MAY SLIP SOUTH ACROSS FL/GULF, RESULTING IN
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT, SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 MPH. THE INCREASED
MIXING MAY RESULT IN STEADY TO SLIGHT WARMING OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE TO AROUND
30 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S TO THE
EAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL
GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FEATURE AND WILL SETTLE RIGHT OVER TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN AROUND
0.5" AND THE FORECAST IS DRY. THE MAIN FORECAST NOTE WILL BE
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A BIG JUMP BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, ENDING WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S BY FRIDAY. WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL START OFF
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT BOTH THURSDAY MORNING AND
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BRING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST
PLACES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
OVERALL, QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIDGING ALOFT WILL PASS
THROUGH ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND BY GETTING
BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND GREATER COVERAGE OF UPPER 70S FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW 5 KTS
THIS EVENING, INCREASING BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS MAY REDEVELOP WITH MIXING BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT, THE SFC PATTERN SHOULD YIELD WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
EVENING, INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. SEAS
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SURGE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL THE LOCAL WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR 25
KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WINDS NO
HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS. ANOTHER SOUTHWEST SURGE IS EXPECTED SUNDAY,
WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL PEAK AS HIGH AS
2-4 FEET DURING THE SURGE PERIODS WEDNESDAY AND SUNDAY, OTHERWISE
EXPECT SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXIST FOR TODAY AS RH VALUES DROP TO
AROUND 25%. ADDITIONALLY, NW WIND GUSTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY. THE RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY EVENING
COMBINED WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HELP
ALLEVIATE SOME CONCERNS, WITH PARTNERS INDICATING FUELS ARE NOT
DRY ENOUGH FOR A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
THIS MORNING, KSAV MIN TEMPERATURE WAS 28 DEGREES, BREAKING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD OF 31 DEGREES SET IN 1968. THE MIN TEMPERATURE
AT KCHS WAS 29 DEGREES, TIES WITH THE RECORD SET IN 1943. KCXM
MIN TEMPERATURE WAS 32 DEGREES, TIES WITH THE RECORD SET IN
1913.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
NOVEMBER 12 (WEDNESDAY):
KCHS: 27/1943
KCXM: 33/1894
KSAV: 30/2011
UPCOMING RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 11 (TUESDAY):
KCHS: 54/1968
KCXM: 46/1913
KSAV: 49/1913
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...BSH/NED
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