111
FXUS62 KCHS 120633
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
133 AM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH DAYBREAK: A LIGHT/CALM WIND UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SUPPORTING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
TEMPS THAT DIP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF I-95 AND TO
THE MID-UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED
NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE LATE, SUGGESTING A 5-10 MPH
SOUTHWEST WIND TO DEVELOP LATE, AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND DURING
PRE-DAWN HOURS.
TODAY: A ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES, SUPPORTING A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
ALOFT. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST SFC WIND LOCALLY AND NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. IN GENERAL, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S (WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INLAND). WIND
GUSTS COULD TOP OUT NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS SOME SPOTS DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: LITTLE CHANGE OCCURS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE GULF AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME CONSIDERABLY WEAKER ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER STRONG CASE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDER CLEAR SKIES ONCE SFC WINDS WEAKEN LATE EVENING, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT. IN GENERAL, LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S
INLAND TO MID-UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND
WILL RESULT IN RATHER PLEASANT FALL CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL RISE TO BECOME LOWER TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY, WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. EACH NIGHT WILL SEE NEAR-IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
SET UP, RESULTING IN OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO MEET SURFACE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND TO UPPER 40S ALONG
THE COAST. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING NEAR HALF
AN INCH, A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
QUIET WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
THE WEEKEND AS MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW OCCURS ALOFT, THOUGH SOME PERIODS
OF WEAK RIDGING AND TROUGHING WILL BE OCCURRING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND ON
SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING A QUICK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THAT WILL
BE DETERMINED THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW, MONDAY
IS ONLY LOOKING LIKE A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN FROM SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING
AND PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON TODAY, PEAKING IN THE 15-20 KT
RANGE AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH DAYBREAK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN,
YIELDING WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
WILL RESPOND BY INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT BY
AROUND SUNRISE. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-3 FT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAINING CENTERED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
EASTERN GULF. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
STRENGTHEN LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH A 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC
WIND IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE LOW-LVL
MIXING WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTING UPWARDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS (HIGHEST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST). A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
LATE MORNING INTO EVENING HOURS AS A RESULT. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GENERALLY TO 2-4 FT ACROSS MOST WATERS, BUT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL THEN
NOTICEABLY WEAKEN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WINDS WILL TIP MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATE EVENING, SUPPORTING WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE
AND SEAS THAT SLOWLY SUBSIDE 1-2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN TRANQUIL SEAS, WITH WINDS NOT HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A SURGE IN WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE,
CURRENTLY HIGHEST IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE, SC TO
SAVANNAH, GA FROM 0-20NM OUT, WITH SEAS PEAKING AS HIGH AS 3-6 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS WINDS TURN WESTERLY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ350.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/DPB
MARINE...APT/DPB
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