963
FXUS62 KCHS 121731
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1231 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AT THE SFC, THE CENTER OF A 1025 MB HIGH
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME
AREAS BECOMING CALM DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP DRY AIR, THIN CLOUD COVER, AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. PERHAPS OUR REGION MAY SEE
PERIODS OF THE AURORA THIS EVENING, BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
FROM THE SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE BENIGN
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AND
WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND MID TO UPPER
70S FOR SOUTHEAST GA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, YIELDING SOME UPPER
30S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS
BROAD RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY, EVEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK
JUST A TOUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
18Z TAFS: TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WSW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DECREASE 5 TO 10 KTS BY
23Z. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SFC TROUGH, WINDS SHOULD VEER
FROM THE NW LATE TONIGHT, REMAINING BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TONIGHT, A PASSING SFC TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A SURGE OF WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS ATLANTIC
WATERS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH THE
CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20S. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DECREASE
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING BETWEEN 2-4 FT,
DECREASING TO 1-3 FT BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING VERY
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME WITH SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO MONDAY. DURING THE INCREASE IN WINDS ON
SUNDAY, SEAS WILL INCREASE TO BE AT LEAST 2-3 FEET ACROSS ALL
WATERS, AND UP TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED,
PRIMARILY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 25-30% AWAY FROM THE COAST
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHILE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
BECOME COMMON. NEAR CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT LOWEST VALUES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A FEW
HOURS DURATION DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS NOT NEEDED,
BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR ANY
NECESSARY UPDATES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/NED
MARINE...BSH/NED
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