216
FXUS62 KCHS 122235
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
535 PM EST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. AT THE SFC, THE CENTER OF A 1025 MB HIGH
SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME
AREAS BECOMING CALM DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
DEEP DRY AIR, THIN CLOUD COVER, AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD
PROVIDE SEVERAL HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. MIN
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM AROUND 40 DEGREES INLAND TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. PERHAPS OUR REGION MAY SEE
PERIODS OF THE AURORA THIS EVENING, BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
FROM THE SPACE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE BENIGN
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE AND
WILL BE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD PEAKING BACK ABOVE NORMAL
BY SATURDAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND MID TO UPPER
70S FOR SOUTHEAST GA. WE SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT, YIELDING SOME UPPER
30S INLAND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET AS
BROAD RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY, EVEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK
JUST A TOUCH COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
13/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 14/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A PASSING SFC TROUGH MAY RESULT IN A SURGE OF WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS ACROSS
ATLANTIC WATERS MAY SEE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS INTO THE LOW
20S, WITH THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS GUSTING INTO THE MID
20S. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS A RESULT, WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD PEAK
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 2-4 FT, DECREASING TO 1-3 FT BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, PRODUCING VERY
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR MUCH OF
THIS TIME WITH SEAS AVERAGING AROUND 2 FEET. WINDS WILL PICK UP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY AND PEAKING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KNOT
RANGE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT GUSTS IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO MONDAY. DURING THE INCREASE IN WINDS ON
SUNDAY, SEAS WILL INCREASE TO BE AT LEAST 2-3 FEET ACROSS ALL
WATERS, AND UP TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED,
PRIMARILY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
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