800
FXUS62 KCHS 140634
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
134 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH DAYBREAK: ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS WHILE AT THE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPS SHOULD STAY WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
BEACHES, AROUND 50 DEGREES.
TODAY: ALOFT, A NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BETWEEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND A RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION, BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA BY LATE MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. SUNNY CONDITIONS SUPPORTING AMPLE SFC HEATING ALONG WITH A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT MIXING OUT OF SFC DEWPTS LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-30%
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOCATIONS WELL INLAND NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER COULD APPROACH 20-25% DURING PEAK HEATING. DESPITE THESE LOWER
RH VALUES, SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT, LIMITING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO LOW-MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
TONIGHT: ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE SLOW TO
NUDGE SOUTH, FAVORING ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS
DECOUPLE EARLY AND BECOME LIGHT/CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS SHOULD DIP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES WEST OF I-95 AND TO THE
MID-UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST. AGAIN, TEMPS ALONG THE BEACHES
COULD STAY AROUND 50 DEGREES LATE NIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO
INDICATES LOWER CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND
FOG WHERE DEWPTS STAY IN THE LOWER 40S LATE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATES ITSELF ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA, A
DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-
WEST. EXPECT DRY, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DESPITE
THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, A RAIN-FREE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AS
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 0.5 TO
0.75 INCHES. OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SUNDAY: THIS AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD
INTO NORTHEAST AND PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS BY THE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY LOW-
LVL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MILD THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH
WARM 850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT
THE SURFACE. IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. AGAIN, GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS, A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED FOR SUNDAY. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES AND LOW TO
MID 50S ALONG THE COASTLINE AS ONLY MODEST COOLING WILL BE SEEN FROM
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY: POST-FROPA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
AND ALLOW QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. WINDS WILL SWITCH OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS DRY WITH PWATS NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.5
INCHES. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID TO UPPER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST AS TO HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT, HOWEVER SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY AND
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
REGARDLESS, THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE WARM-UP WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED INLAND THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME CENTERED ACROSS LOCAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING, THEN PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN QUIET
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 FT.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION, SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON SATURDAY MORNING, AND THEN PICK-UP
TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT (MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
CHARLESTON AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON
AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FROPA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 FT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, AND THEN TAPERING BACK TO 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DENNIS
LONG TERM...DENNIS
AVIATION...DENNIS/DPB
MARINE...DENNIS/DPB
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