221
FXUS62 KCHS 150558
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNRISE: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS OUR SE GA
COUNTIES. WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY HEADLINES.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NW FLOW. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE DISTANT NORTH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
HIGH WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH
SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE BEACHES. LOW WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: A UPPER-LVL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MILD THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WARM
850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
SURFACE. IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION WILL BE WEDGED
BETWEEN THE UPPER-LVL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FL. AGAIN, GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS, A
RAIN- FREE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE COASTLINE AS MODEST COOLING WILL BE SEEN FROM
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: POST-FROPA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY
WITH PWATS NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS., BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING OFF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING PRESENT, THE FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-FREE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FRONT WILL
STALL OUT NEARBY. THE END OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE WARM-UP WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
06Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: NO MARINE CONCERNS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO OUR SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE NO MARINE CONCERNS DURING THE DAY. DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND HIGHER, SO WE
HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON WATERS
AND THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT (MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS) ON SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POST-FROPA, WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT ON SUNDAY, AND THEN
TAPERING BACK TO 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page