536
FXUS62 KCHS 151735
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TIMES
THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 MPH,
AROUND 30 MPH OVER LAKE MOULTRIE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT, H85
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GUST WINDS
SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT, RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SE GA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY.
LAKE WIND: A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TO
HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WATER TEMPERATURES
RANGE AROUND 55 DEGREES, POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE OPEN
WATER. THIS MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH MIXING FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM
LLVL WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: A UPPER-LVL TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT MILD THICKNESSES ACROSS THE REGION. WITH WARM
850-700MB TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE
SURFACE. IT'S POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA REACH INTO THE LOW 80S. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE REGION WILL BE WEDGED
BETWEEN THE UPPER-LVL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN FL. AGAIN, GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS, A
RAIN- FREE FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. EXPECT LOWS TO REACH INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AND UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S ALONG THE COASTLINE AS MODEST COOLING WILL BE SEEN FROM
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: POST-FROPA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND ALLOW QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY
WITH PWATS NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS., BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING OFF
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING PRESENT, THE FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-FREE
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FRONT WILL
STALL OUT NEARBY. THE END OF THE WEEK COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCES TOWARDS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A PROGRESSIVE WARM-UP WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLVL
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 40-45 KTS AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LLWS APPEARS POSSIBLE AT EACH
TERMINAL AFTER 5Z. AROUND SUNRISE, THE ONSET OF MIXING SHOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS, ENDING LLWS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE SC NEARSHORE,
INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR, AND OUTER GA WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION, BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT (MAINLY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS) ON SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR NEARSHORE CHARLESTON AND OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. POST-FROPA, WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 FT ON SUNDAY, AND THEN
TAPERING BACK TO 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
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