205
FXUS62 KCHS 151755
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TIMES
THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SUNDAY. AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY STEEPEN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO NEAR 20 MPH,
AROUND 30 MPH OVER LAKE MOULTRIE, ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT, H85
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS SE GA TO THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY.
LAKE WIND: A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TO
HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WATER TEMPERATURES
RANGE AROUND 55 DEGREES, POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE OPEN
WATER. THIS MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH MIXING FOR MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM
LLVL WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: BREEZY WINDS IN THE MORNING DIMINISH LATER MORNING THROUGH
MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
ENDS MIDDAY AS COOLER WATER TEMPS LIMIT MIXING WITH THE DIMINISHING
GRADIENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER LAND GIVEN HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST, WITH
PROBS FOR 80 OR WARMER GREATEST SOUTH OF I-16 AT AROUND 30-40%.
LACK OF FORCING AND VERY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THIS A
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFTING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
AND AGAIN BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: POST-FROPA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SLIDES OVER EASTERN NC, WITH VERY DRY LOWER TO MID LEVELS KEEPING
QUIET, DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. RH VALUES DROP TO 15-20% INLAND MONDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS LIMITED. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPS MONDAY BECOME MORE
SEASONABLE TUESDAY, WITH NO NOTABLE WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS., BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING OFF OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING PRESENT, A HIGH CONFIDENCE RAIN-FREE FORECAST CONTINUES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A LOWER-PREDICTIBILITY PATTERN EMERGES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA, AHEAD OF A LARGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL MOST
LIKELY SCENARIOS KEEP ONLY MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS A STRONGER COLD
FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
18Z TAFS: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LLVL
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 40-45 KTS AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LLWS APPEARS POSSIBLE AT EACH
TERMINAL AFTER 5Z. AROUND SUNRISE, THE ONSET OF MIXING SHOULD
SUPPORT GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20 KTS, ENDING LLWS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK: VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT W TO W/NW WIND
SHIFT SUNDAY EVENING. ADDITIONALLY, MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL FOG CONDITIONS - WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NEARBY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
MARINE
TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE SC NEARSHORE,
INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR, AND OUTER GA WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING 3 TO 6 FT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE
GRADIENT DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL ACROSS THE WATERS LATER SUNDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT SUNDAY,
BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW. POST-FRONTAL CAA IS
MODEST, AND CONDITIONS, WHILE AGAIN BREEZY, LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
MONDAY BECOMING LIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SEAS PEAK AROUND 4-7 FT SUNDAY,
THE DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY, SETTLING TO AN UNSEASONABLY LOW 1-2 FT
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/NED
MARINE...CEB/NED
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