448
FXUS62 KCHS 160107
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
807 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THE SFC PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FL AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
TIMES THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
GRADUALLY STEEPEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WIND GUSTS INTO THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 MPH, AROUND 30 MPH OVER LAKE MOULTRIE, ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. IN FACT, H85 WINDS REMAIN AROUND 40 KTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO SLOWLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LOWS
SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS SE GA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY.
LAKE WINDS: A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AT MIDNIGHT TO
HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. WATER
TEMPERATURES RANGE AROUND 55 DEGREES, POSSIBLY A BIT WARMER
ACROSS THE OPEN WATER. THIS MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH MIXING FOR
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT FROM LLVL WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: BREEZY WINDS IN THE MORNING DIMINISH LATER MORNING
THROUGH MIDDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY ENDS MIDDAY AS COOLER WATER TEMPS LIMIT MIXING
WITH THE DIMINISHING GRADIENT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER LAND GIVEN HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST, WITH PROBS FOR 80 OR WARMER GREATEST
SOUTH OF I-16 AT AROUND 30-40%.
LACK OF FORCING AND VERY DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP THIS
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH WINDS ABRUPTLY SHIFTING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AND AGAIN BECOMING BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: POST-FROPA, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
SLIDES OVER EASTERN NC, WITH VERY DRY LOWER TO MID LEVELS
KEEPING QUIET, DRY WEATHER IN PLACE. RH VALUES DROP TO 15-20%
INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED. OTHERWISE, COOLER TEMPS
MONDAY BECOME MORE SEASONABLE TUESDAY, WITH NO NOTABLE WEATHER
IMPACTS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, BEFORE REORGANIZING
OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND FORCING PRESENT, A HIGH CONFIDENCE RAIN-FREE
FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A LOWER-PREDICTIBILITY PATTERN EMERGES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA, AHEAD OF A LARGER
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL
MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS KEEP ONLY MODEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
16/00Z TAF DISCUSSION: VFR THROUGH 17/00Z. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 40-45 KT AROUND 2 KFT THROUGH MUCH OF
TONIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(LLWS) IS PROBABLE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 05Z. THE ONSET OF
MIXING AFTER SUNRISE SHOULD SUPPORT GUSTS >20 KT, ENDING LLWS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT W TO W/NW WIND SHIFT SUNDAY EVENING.
ADDITIONALLY, MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL FOG CONDITIONS - WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
MARINE
18Z HREF AND THE LATEST SET OF PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION
SUPPORT EXPANDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE RISK
FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE ZONE, WHICH IMPACTS SOME HARBOR APPROACHES TO THE SAVANNAH
RIVER ENTRANCE. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS ACROSS THE SC
NEARSHORE, INCLUDING THE CHS HARBOR, AND OUTER GA WATERS
TONIGHT. SEAS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT, REACHING 3 TO 6
FT LATE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: BREEZY CONDITIONS SUNDAY MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE GRADIENT DIMINISHES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ACROSS THE WATERS LATER
SUNDAY EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT FROM W TO N/NW. POST- FRONTAL CAA IS MODEST, AND
CONDITIONS, WHILE AGAIN BREEZY, LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, EXPECT IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS,
WITH MODERATE WINDS MONDAY BECOMING LIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. SEAS
PEAK AROUND 4-7 FT SUNDAY, THE DIMINISH THROUGH MONDAY,
SETTLING TO AN UNSEASONABLY LOW 1-2 FT TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 3 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.
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