201
FXUS62 KCHS 161122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH
GRADUALLY LOWERING HEIGHTS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY WHILE DRY A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING, THEN SOUTH OF
OUR AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS COULD BE BREEZY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, EXCEPT COOLER
AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S FAR INLAND TO
NEAR 50 DEGREES AT/NEAR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY: AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE DOWN ACROSS
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. WITH THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE A
THIS POINT, MODEST COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND LOW
70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE DRY WITH
PWATS NEAR OR LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE EVENING. RH VALUES DROP TO
15-20% INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS WILL
KEEP OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LIMITED (SEE FIRE
WEATHER SECTION BELOW). OTHERWISE, IT'LL BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A RAIN-FREE FORECAST.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS.,
BEFORE RE- ORGANIZING OFF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING
PRESENT, THE FORECAST REMAINS RAIN-FREE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FRONT WILL STALL
OUT NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS PATTERN PROMOTES CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND A PROGRESSIVE WARM- UP WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE FORECAST.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THROWS AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AS MODEL GUIDANCE WIDELY DIFFERS ON THE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. GUSTY WSW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL FOG CONDITIONS -
WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY AND MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - TO
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER LOW PREDICTABILITY THIS FAR
IN ADVANCE.
MARINE
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY. THIS WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS, SO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL COME DOWN.
TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING,
QUICKLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH OUR WATERS LATER THIS EVENING,
THEN SOUTH OF OUR WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS
TO VEER TO THE N AND THEN NE. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES, POST-FROPA CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL
OF THE FORECAST. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM TO 1 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 15-20% ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SC AND SOUTHEAST GA COUNTIES MONDAY LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERALL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED. AT THIS TIME A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT IS NOT NEEDED, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ANY NECESSARY UPDATES.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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