202
FXUS62 KCHS 161753
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLE WARM
CONDITIONS REMAINING UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A DRY
BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC EXTENDING SW ALONG
THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF SC/GA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR, THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE CHS
TRI-COUNTY THIS EVENING, REACHING SAVANNAH AROUND MIDNIGHT. AFTER
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NORTH AND THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR.
USING A BLEND OF MOS, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S INLAND TO THE UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY: BY DAYBREAK, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE FL/GA LINE. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, A MODIFIED AIR MASS
SOURCED FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OVER THE REGION,
LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ACROSS INLAND SE GA AND SC. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A WEAK SEA BREEZE
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE GA AND LOWER SC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON,
VEERING WINDS FROM THE EAST. AS A RESULT, H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO COOL BY ONLY 1-2 C BETWEEN 12-0Z. THE COMBINATION OF
COOL LLVL THICKNESSES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKY SHOULD YIELD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW
70S ACROSS SE GA. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DIP BETWEEN 25 TO 30 F
ALONG AND WEST OF I-95, TO THE LOW TO MID 30S TO THE EAST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT
INLAND OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES, SOME TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
GA. FORTUNATELY, LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: AN ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE CWA WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE LOW AND WEST OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN YIELD WEAK
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WITH INCREASING LLVL THICKNESSES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY, VALUES IN THE
LOW 70S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND MID 70S ACROSS SE GA. ON
WEDNESDAY, WAA AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
RAIN-FREE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONG TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG, NEARLY 590 DM, RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NAEFS INDICATES THAT LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, H5 HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL APPROACH 2 UNITS OF STANDARDIZED ANOMALY
DURING THE LATE WORK WEEK. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION), WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS
THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA.
ON SATURDAY, LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE LATE WEEK LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT. 0/6Z GUIDANCE INDICATED
THAT THE STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, RESULTING IN THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE
COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, 12Z GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE GFS, IS MUCH
FASTER WITH A CLOSED LOW EJECTING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT, PASSING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE
SATURDAY. THE NBM BASED FORECAST IS CERTAINLY SIDING WITH THE
SLOWER SCENARIO, FEATURING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
OVERNIGHT SCHC POPS FOR SHOWERS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
FORECAST MAY TREND COOLER AND WETTER IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE HOLDS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
18Z TAFS: WEST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL 22Z. A DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH
KCHS/KJZI AROUND 1Z, THEN KSAV BY 4Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE NORTH AT AROUND 5 KTS, THEN NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PERIODS OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
FOR THE OUTER GA AND CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS ARE
SCHEDULED TO END AT 5 PM.
TONIGHT: A DRY BACK-DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SC WATERS THIS
EVENING, REACHING THE GA WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT. AS THE FRONT
PASSES, WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR
VALUES BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD DECREASE TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND PORTIONS OF INLAND SC MONDAY LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS AND RECOVERING LATE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED.
AT THIS TIME A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS NOT NEEDED, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY NECESSARY UPDATES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
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