329
FXUS62 KCHS 171720
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1220 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWING SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT DURING
THIS TIME, ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEK.
WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH CLOUD COVER
FORECAST TO INCREASE A SMIDGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
NONETHELESS, WITH THE AID OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER FLAT
AND ZONAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER, PROMINENT RIDGING
WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH A FRONT SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1-1.25
INCHES) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, THE AREA WILL REMAIN DEVOID
OF ANY REAL FORCING. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE MAIN STORY
WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (AND EVEN SOME MID 80S
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST GA). SUCH VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10-12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY
RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE
THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PUSHES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT
THE OVERALL RAINFALL PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR FRIDAY WHEN DAILY RECORDS COULD BE WITHIN
REACH. SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION, BECOMING LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: OVERALL, QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THAT ARE
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS
LIKE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD,
INCREASING A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO THE 2-3 FT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. AS A RESULT, WILL LIKELY SEE RH VALUES DROP TO
CRITICAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE AREAS INLAND DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS, WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST IN THE 20S. THAT BEING
SAID, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, WHICH SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SST
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SST
MARINE...BSH/SST
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