500
FXUS62 KCHS 172135
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
435 PM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD, WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 60S. WINDS ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT
DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT START TO THE WEEK.
WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH CLOUD
COVER FORECAST TO INCREASE A SMIDGEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. NONETHELESS, WITH THE AID OF RADIATIONAL COOLING, HAVE
LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR INLAND TO THE
LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER
FLAT AND ZONAL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER,
PROMINENT RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH A FRONT
SITUATED TO THE NORTH. THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT MOISTURE
(PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1-1.25 INCHES) IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD, THE AREA WILL REMAIN DEVOID OF ANY REAL FORCING.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WARMING
TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WHILE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (AND EVEN SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE
FOR SOUTHEAST GA). SUCH VALUES WOULD BE AROUND 10-12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE RIDGE GETS SUPPRESSED AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND JUST NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING SOME RAIN POTENTIAL TO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FORM
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT THE OVERALL RAINFALL
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM FOR FRIDAY
WHEN DAILY RECORDS COULD BE WITHIN REACH. SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE
ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 19/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION,
BECOMING LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS OUR
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2
FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: OVERALL, QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS THAT
ARE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. A FRONT WILL APPROACH ON SATURDAY
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS OF
NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED. SEAS SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, INCREASING A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO THE
2-3 FT RANGE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page