433
FXUS62 KCHS 181128
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTH
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THOUGH, ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN TRANSITION TO WNW FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS TO OUR
SOUTH. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON, CAUSING
THE STATIONARY FRONT TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT
NORTH. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUT AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS FORECASTED WITH THE FRONT,
SO DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY, RISING TO THE UPPER
70S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND VICINITY. LOWS WILL BE MILD,
FROM THE UPPER 40S FAR INLAND TO THE MIDDLE 50S AT/NEAR THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEDNESDAY: ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE SITUATED ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS
STATE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE AND A STRONG UPPER-LVL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. SIMULTANEOUSLY, AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE REGION WITH PWATS RANGING FROM
1 TO 1.25 INCHES. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE MAJORITY OF FORCING REMAINS TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (AND EVEN
SOME MID 80S POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST GA). SUCH VALUES WOULD BE
AROUND 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND COULD BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A STRONG UPPER-LVL RIDGE WITH NEARLY 590
DM WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE GULF ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION), WITH LOW
80S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT UPPER-LVL RIDGING TO BECOME SUPPRESSED AS A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION ON SATURDAY, AND AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY
STILL REMAINS ON THE PHASING OF THE H5 RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST NOTES 20-30% POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND COULD IMPACT THE AREA IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE WITH SUCH A QUICK-PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY, WITH MODEST
COOLING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PREVAILING VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PERIODS OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON, CAUSING THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT AND LIFT NORTH.
THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUT AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
OUR COASTAL WATERS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 1-3 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KSAV: 85/1942
NOVEMBER 20:
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KCXM: 80/1942
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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