686
FXUS62 KCHS 190556
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNRISE: PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. HEADLINES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VALLEY. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOW
OVERHEAD TO SHIFT TO THE NW, WHILE HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA, WHILE A
FRONT IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THE HIGH WILL BRING OUR AREA DRY
CONDITIONS WITH PASSING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, EXCEPT
COOLER AT THE BEACHES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A STRONG UPPER-LVL RIDGE WITH NEARLY 590
DM WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE GULF ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WILL REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION), WITH UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
ACROSS SE GA.
SATURDAY: AS UPPER-LVL RIDGING BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA, AN ASSOCIATED COLD IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE PHASING OF THE H5
RIDGE LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. FORECAST NOTES 20% POPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND COULD IMPACT THE AREA IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
LIGHT AS PRIMARY FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. IT IS
UNLIKELY TO ADD MUCH RELIEF TO THE ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS
THE INLAND COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, MODEST COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL FLOW TO TAKE HOLD OF THE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEREAFTER, A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL START TO
APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY INTRODUCE A PATTERN
CHANGE MID-WEEK, HOWEVER A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS
ON THE TIMING AND POSITION OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
06Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PREVAILING VFR. A COLD FRONT COULD
BRING AT LEAST BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SATURDAY, BUT THE
PRECIPITATION AND WIND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE FRONT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA,
WHILE A FRONT IS LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THE HIGH WILL BRING
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 1-3 FT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES, WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, WIND SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS THIS WEEKEND. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KSAV: 85/1942
NOVEMBER 20:
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KCXM: 79/1997
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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