507
FXUS62 KCHS 192351
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT: BROAD RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ALOFT
WHILE A SURFACE FRONT LIKELY BECOMES HUNG UP JUST TO OUR NORTH
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS, PEE DEE, AND GRAND STRAND. BEING ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AND WE EXPECT TO SEE A MILD NIGHT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO
THE MID 50S INLAND WITH AROUND 60 EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. GIVEN THE WEAK TO CALM SURFACE FLOW, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, THERE COULD BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL
MAINLY FOR INLAND AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: ALOFT, BROAD RIDGING WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE FLATTENING
OUT TO BECOME MORE ZONAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR
SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE,
A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO HANG UP JUST TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY,
THEN WASH OUT FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE. THEN FOR SATURDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL DRIVE A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARMTH AS HIGHS EACH DAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY AND
COULD APPROACH DAILY RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING SIMILAR TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER TIME, WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN ITS APPROACH FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE
INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING. THE FORECAST FEATURES SOME 20 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR, BUT WE CERTAINLY DO NOT
EXPECT ANY NOTABLE RAINFALL IF ANY AT ALL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A TRAILING SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, RIDGING WILL AGAIN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETUP OFFSHORE WHILE A COLD FRONT ORGANIZES ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THE FORECAST AREA WILL THEN BECOME SITUATED
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THIS FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH A A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH ALOFT,
WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE AREA THOUGH ITS TIMING OF ARRIVAL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. REGARDLESS, THE
STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT, PRIMARILY INLAND OF THE SAV
TERMINAL. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG, BUT
SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITHIN A FEW
HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY, GREATEST CHANCE OCCURRING AT SAV.
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FROM 09-12Z AT SAV WITH MIFG
AS A RESULT.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PRIMARILY VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SOUTHWEST FLOW OF NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING, BECOMING WESTERLY 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE AROUND 2 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY, BECOMING
WESTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THEN NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD PEAK IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE DURING THE TIME
OF THE STRONGEST WINDS. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 19:
KCHS: 83/1942
KCXM: 82/1958
KSAV: 85/1942
NOVEMBER 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KCHS: 83/1973
KCXM: 80/1942
KSAV: 82/2011
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH
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