962
FXUS62 KCHS 201123
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
623 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF BROAD, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED TO OUR
NORTH THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTH, STRETCHING ACROSS OUR
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES, TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY: ALOFT, BROAD UPPER-LVL RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
GULF, BEFORE FLATTENING OUT TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY THE
AFTERNOON. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND TRACK TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REACH NEAR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION), WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA.
SATURDAY: AS UPPER-LVL RIDGING BECOMES SUPPRESSED BY A
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL FLOAT INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER TIME, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN ITS APPROACH FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE INFLUENCE OF DOWNSLOPING. FORECAST NOTES
20% POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND COULD IMPACT THE AREA IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT AS PRIMARY
FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. IT IS UNLIKELY TO ADD MUCH
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS.
SUNDAY: AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, MODEST
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW FOR ZONAL
FLOW TO TAKE CONTROL AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ELONGATED FRONT WHICH IS
PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
HOWEVER, A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING AND
ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETUP
OFFSHORE AND YIELD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM ARRIVES.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING WILL MEANDER SOUTH, STRETCHING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 1-2 FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE ZONES, EXPECT WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WIND
SPEEDS COULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
FT. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KCHS: 83/1942
KCXM: 79/1997
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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