630
FXUS62 KCHS 201712
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1212 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC-BASED OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A LARGE PATCH
OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE CHS TRI-COUNTY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST, EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING. NEARSHORE
WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE BETWEEN 59 TO 63 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR
COOLER THAN FORECAST DEWPOINTS TONIGHT. AREAS TO PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GA NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN SPREAD
NORTH AND INLAND LATE TONIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD BE ISSUED
AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG, NEARLY 590 DM, RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE GULF ON FRIDAY. NAEFS INDICATES THAT FRIDAY, LLVL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL APPROACH 2
UNITS OF STANDARDIZED ANOMALY. GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH NO PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL REACH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION), WITH NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA.
GUIDANCE INDICATED THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE DAY, RESULTING IN AN EVENING ARRIVAL OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE NBM BASED FORECAST IS SIDING WITH THE SLOWER
GUIDANCE, FEATURING NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON SCHC
POPS FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME INLAND ZONES. TEMPERATURES MAY
VERIFY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL COOL BY 3
TO 4 DEGREES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY FROM THE TOP-DOWN, RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMALS, WITH NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SC
LOWCOUNTRY TO THE MID 70S ACROSS SE GA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE H5 PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO FEATURE A 588 DM RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER EASTERN CANADA MAY SWEEP AN ELONGATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
INTO THE MID-WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SCHC TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z TAFS, VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SFC-BASED OBSERVATIONS
INDICATED A LARGE PATCH OF STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE CHS TRI-
COUNTY. RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS MAY LINGER OF KCHS AND KJZI UNTIL
AROUND 18Z, HIGHLIGHTED WITH TEMPOS. THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL
FEATURE LIGHT EAST WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST, EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST MOS
AND HRRR INDICATES INDICATES THAT AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING, THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
EACH TERMINAL, ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. MUCH LIKE TODAY, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT STRATUS MAY NOT MIX OUT UNTIL 18Z FRIDAY.
TAFS WILL INDICATE THAT BY 18Z, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
5 KTS AND CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
PERIODS OF GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS. A
WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH ALONG THE GA/SC COAST, EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS EVENING.
AREAS TO PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GA NEARSHORE WATERS THIS
EVENING, THEN SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A DFA
MAYBE ISSUED TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL FEATURE WINDS
AROUND 5 KTS WITH 1-2 FT WAVE HEIGHTS.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
REMAIN ACROSS MARINE ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN A
WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN, REACHING 10 TO 15 KTS ON SATURDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD FAVOR
VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KCHS: 83/1942
KCXM: 79/1997
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
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