490
FXUS62 KCHS 210557
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNRISE: FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF IT MAY BE LOCALLY
DENSE. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. IT'LL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL. THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NBM HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FAR INLAND
AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT ON SATURDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH RIPPLING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE FRONT NOT PUSHING
THROUGH UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT OR EVEN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL SOAR TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS) WITH HIGHS PUSHING 80
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS. LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
FROPA, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FEATURED IN THE
FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, STILL A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL SIMILARLY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
DIPPING INTO THE LOW 40S INLAND AND AROUND 50 ALONG THE COAST. A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
BROAD RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE IN THE UPPER LEVELS THROUGH
MID WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. MID-WEEK A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CANADA IS FORECAST TO SWEEP AN ELONGATED
TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD, BRINGING THE REGION THE
FIRST REAL SHOT AT RAIN IN A WHILE, WITH POPS CURRENTLY AROUND
30%. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
06Z TAFS: TEMPO IFR IS FORECASTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z. THEN, A FEW HOURS OF MVFR FOLLOWED BY VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: NEARSHORE FOG IS POSSIBLE. SOME OF IT MAY BE
LOCALLY DENSE.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL BRINGING
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY 10
KT OR LESS TODAY INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-2 FT TODAY, BUILDING TO 2-3 FT TONIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MARINE WATERS SATURDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO
20 KNOTS. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SHIFT TO THE NW AND THEN NE BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE 2 TO 3 FT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 21:
KSAV: 82/2011
NOVEMBER 22:
KCXM: 79/1997
KSAV: 82/1997
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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