847
FXUS62 KCHS 281743
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING SOME IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS AFTERNOON: ALOFT, A LARGE MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
ACROSS THE NEARBY ATLANTIC, PLACING A WEST-NORTHWEST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES, HELPING TO MAINTAIN DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE COOLER TEMPS AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION BATTLES A DOWNSLOPE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IN GENERAL,
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 50S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. THESE TEMPS ARE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT, RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS FREEZING TEMPS LOCALLY.
WINDS COULD DECOUPLE EARLY EVENING UNDER FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS,
SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING PRIOR TO MORE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS COULD LIMIT OVERALL
COOLING POTENTIAL LATE, LOW TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH
THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS ALL INLAND COUNTIES. IN GENERAL, LOW TEMPS
SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND TO MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOCATIONS ALONG THE BEACHES COULD STAY IN THE
LOWER 40S, ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES WHERE SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE LATE.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL,
ESPECIALLY AS A TROUGH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
NBM KEEPS OUR AREA DRY ON SATURDAY, THEN HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST
ABOUT EVERYWHERE LATE SUNDAY. NO QPF IS FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SATURDAY, THEN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID-LEVELS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS
TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH DURING THE DAY,
WITH A STORM SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE IN THE
DAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL TREND HIGHER, THE NBM MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH NO QPF. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. POPS QUICKLY
RISE MONDAY NIGHT, PEAKING IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ON TUESDAY. IT'S
STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE ARE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, LEADING
TO A WEAKER PRESSURE AND DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WIND DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL, WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO
SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT, GENERALLY TO 1-3 FT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS,
ALTHOUGH A FEW 4 FT SEAS COULD LINGER ON NEAR 60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST. OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD SLIGHTLY VEER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD ALSO
BUILD UP TO 2-4 FT PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. BUT NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED. A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE COASTAL
WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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