261
FXUS62 KCHS 282326
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING SOME IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: ANOTHER VERY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL TURN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO MORE NORTHEASTERLY BY SUNRISE.
WE WILL ALSO MAINTAIN ENOUGH GRADIENT TO SUPPORT UP TO AROUND 10
MPH OF NORTHEAST FLOW ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
CLOSER TO 5 MPH INLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH A STEADY STREAM OF
CIRRUS ALOFT WILL PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, WE STILL ANTICIPATE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND WHILE STAYING IN THE UPPER 30S OR EVEN LOW
40S ALONG THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL,
ESPECIALLY AS A TROUGH PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SHIFTING WELL OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. WEAK TROUGHING WILL BE
OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NBM KEEPS OUR AREA DRY ON SATURDAY, THEN HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE LATE SUNDAY. NO QPF IS
FORECASTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY, THEN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL TREND HIGHER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE MID-LEVELS. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE HIGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH DURING THE
DAY, WITH A STORM SYSTEMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL TREND HIGHER, THE NBM
MAINTAINS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITH
NO QPF. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
A STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. POPS
QUICKLY RISE MONDAY NIGHT, PEAKING IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE ON
TUESDAY. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT SIGNIFICANT FLOODING RAINS ARE NOT IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, LEADING TO A
WEAKER PRESSURE AND DIMINISHING NORTHERLY WIND DURING THE DAY.
IN GENERAL, WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL
ALSO SUBSIDE ABOUT A FOOT, GENERALLY TO 1-3 FT ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS, ALTHOUGH A FEW 4 FT SEAS COULD LINGER ON NEAR 60 NM OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST. OVERNIGHT, WINDS SHOULD SLIGHTLY VEER TO
NORTH-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT EARLY
MORNING, IN RESPONSE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD UP TO 2-4 FT PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. BUT NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING SOME IMPACTS
TO THE COASTAL WATERS STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
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