677
FXUS62 KCHS 290544
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1244 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A STORM SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING SOME IMPACTS TO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY WILL BEGIN WITH THICK CIRRUS AND MID-CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
SEVERAL HOURS OF MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNSET.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT STEADY
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS, GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 10 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG THE COAST, WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. USING A BLEND OF MOS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS SE GA.
TONIGHT, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER SW H5 FLOW, WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF
STREAM. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SFC
TROUGH, GENERALLY REMAINING OVER THE OUTER GA AND SC WATERS. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE CWA AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES,
RANGING NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
FOR SUNDAY, THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MIXES OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES REACH BACK UP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS EXPECT, SO EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY AGAIN RESULT IN SOME WEAK
SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES ARRIVE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COLD
FRONT SLIPS THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEING
PUSHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL DROP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S,
WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL HAVE LOWERED
AS THE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED SHORTWAVES HAVE SPED UP AND MOVED ACROSS
WITH THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN EXPECTED.
AS A TROUGH MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING UP INTO THE
NORTHEAST, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA ACROSS THE
GULF WHICH WILL BE INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED THE SURFACE LOW
A TOUCH FURTHER INLAND, KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MORE ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS THAN THE COAST. TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR THE
REGION LOOKS MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION, THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY NEAR 1.5
INCHES, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE 0.5-1.0 INCH
RANGE, HIGHEST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT APPRECIABLE RAINFALL,
NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH
STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL THOUGH LIKELY REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SHY IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS RATHER
POOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THEY STRUGGLE TO DETERMINE WHAT TO
DO WITH THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH THE
NBM BRINGING BACK LOW END (20-40%) CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE LOW PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH BOTH LOW CEILINGS AND
LOWERED VSBYS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SC AND GA. AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOULD
GRADUALLY DEEPEN OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KTS SHOULD PERSISTS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS TONIGHT, WINDS SHOULD VEER FROM THE EAST AND
SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 3-4 FT,
WITH 5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: WINDS WEAKEN ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL BE
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA ON MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST, WITH
SOME 6 FOOT SEAS ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES WILL OCCUR
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
TRAVERSE THE REGION, WITH WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKING SUB-ADVISORY, BUT
SEAS DO BEGIN TO APPROACH/EXCEED 6 FEET AGAIN ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/NED
MARINE...APT/NED
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