542
FXUS62 KCHS 292326
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND THEN A
STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
EARLY THIS EVENING: SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA, RIDGING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. JUST OFFSHORE, A COASTAL TROUGH IS TAKING SHAPE,
WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING A FEW LIGHT RETURNS STARTING TO POP
UP AROUND 50-60 MILES OFFSHORE OF THE CHATHAM/BEAUFORT COUNTY
COAST. OVERNIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE INLAND RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE COASTAL TROUGH TO BUCKLE BACK TOWARDS THE COAST.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE
COASTAL TROUGH, AND WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LATE TONIGHT WE COULD EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ONSHORE
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SC COAST. TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS
COLD AS THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND, RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
SUNDAY: AS THE WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION MIXES OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1 TO
1.5" BY THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE WAA REGIME.
ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY RESULT IN SOME WEAK SHOWERS IN THE MORNING,
HOWEVER THE CHANCE OF THIS REMAINS QUITE LOW. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO LOW 40S INLAND AND THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S
NEAR THE COASTLINE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE MONDAY
MORNING, EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPS. ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ON MONDAY. SOME DRIER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER THIS WILL
ONLY LAST MOMENTARILY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. A SURFACE
LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE RATHER QUICKLY
TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND PWATS WILL RAMP
UP TO 1.5-1.75" OVERNIGHT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, CHANCES OF RAINFALL
WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE ON TUESDAY MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER, DESPITE PWAT VALUES APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 0.50 TO 1.0 INCHES, WITH
THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS
WILL LIKELY ADD SOME RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL DWINDLE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
UPPER-LVL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFFSHORE RATHER QUICKLY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER, MODEL
CONSENSUS REMAINS RATHER POOR ON THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM FOR
THE THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 2.5-3.5 KFT
WILL LIKELY SPREAD ONSHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES, BUT OVERALL VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: LOW-LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW, THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS (IN TERMS OF LOW CEILINGS) AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR ON LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AFTER AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT
AWAY, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE STRENGTHENS AND
MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL BRING
SUSTAINED NE WINDS 15-20 KT THIS EVENING, THEN VEERING
OVERNIGHT, AND EASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS
4-5 FT THIS EVENING SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 3-4 FT OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: EXPECT WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
SPIN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY MORNING. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE THROUGHOUT MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15
KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME 6
FOOTERS IN THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL OUT OF THE VEER THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A
TOUCH, BUT REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, A
REINFORCING SHOT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL MIXES INTO THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY AND SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FT IN THE SOUTH
CAROLINA NEARSHORE AND 6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AFTERWARDS,
THE SWELL LOOKS TO EASE BACK AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AND CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
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