216
FXUS62 KCHS 300526
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY, AND THEN A STORM SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THIS MORNING, KCLX DETECTED ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF GA/SC, DRIFTING TOWARDS SHORE. THESE SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING WITHIN AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
SUPPORTED MAY PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH, WEAK VALUES SBCAPE, AND
PERIODS OF LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE
SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE COAST TODAY, BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA.
THE COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES. THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE
SCHC POPS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST, RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO QPF.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOW 50S
ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ON MONDAY, ANOTHER COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO UNFOLDS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT BEING PUSHED OFF TO OUR SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL DROP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY (<20%), THOUGH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN EXPECTED.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING UP
INTO THE NORTHEAST COAST, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA FROM THE GULF WHICH WILL BE INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES MONDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, BUT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
REMAINS MORE ACROSS THE MIDLANDS THAN THE COAST. TIMING OF THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REGION LOOKS MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSES THE REGION, THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER
PERCENTILES RANGING FROM 90 TO 97.5 OF CLIMATOLOGY, WHICH ARE IN THE
1.5-1.75 INCH RANGE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN LARGELY IN THE
0.5-1.0 INCH RANGE, HIGHEST ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND LACK OF RECENT APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL, NO FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DWINDLE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WITH STRONG ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVES TOWARDS THE
COAST BY THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, THOUGH LIKELY
REMAINING A FEW DEGREES SHY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS RATHER POOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THEY STRUGGLE TO DETERMINE WHAT TO DO WITH THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH THE NBM BRINGING BACK
LOW-MODERATE (20-40%) CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY. PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE INDICATED SOME PATCHES OF
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD, GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BRINGING THICK
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THERE ARE MODERATE PROBABILITIES (30-50%)
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY, DUE TO LOW CEILINGS. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING HIGHER PROBABILITIES (50-80%, LOWEST ALONG THE COAST) OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH BOTH LOW CEILINGS
AND LOWERED VSBYS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
TODAY, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VARYING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT. THE COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES THIS EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP, SPEEDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS. NO SIGNIFICANT IN WAVE
HEIGHTS TONIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA ON MONDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST,
WITH SOME 6 FOOT SEAS ALSO POSSIBLE AS A COASTAL SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION, TRAVERSING THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BOTH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, DECREASING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKING SUB-ADVISORY AND WILL BE
VARYING DIRECTIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT SEAS DO BUILD AND BEGIN TO
APPROACH/EXCEED 6 FEET AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THUS, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY IN THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
WHERE SEAS APPROACH 80 FEET 60NM OUT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CHANCES FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING RETURN WITH THE TUESDAY EARLY
MORNING HIGH TIDE, ALONG THE CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTY
COAST.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...APT
LONG TERM...APT
AVIATION...APT/NED
MARINE...APT/NED
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