137
FXUS62 KCHS 030526
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEM PREVAIL THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
EXPAND EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTING
DRY AND COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITHIN A
WEST- NORTHWEST WIND THIS EVENING, THEN NORTH WIND AFTER
MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS
SOMEWHAT MIXED, WHILE LINGERING LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUPPORTS SOME
DEGREE OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE SETUP FAVORS
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW-MID 40S ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS LEANING ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF NORMAL. ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY PERSIST.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, AND MODELS HINT AT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST NBM INDICATES ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE (20%) OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL (>0.01") THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, BUT BY AND LARGE, MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
GULF AND INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO SURGE
TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN
INCREASE IN ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. LOOKING
AT QPF CLUSTERS, MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THE ENTIRE
AREA RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS,
BUT IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT A SMALL CONTINGENT (~20% OF MEMBERS)
SHOWS THE BULK OF RAINFALL FOCUSED MORE INLAND/OVER THE MIDLANDS
THROUGH 00Z. FOR NOW, OUR QPF INDICATES 0.25-0.75". OTHERWISE,
THERE COULD BE A NOTABLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
(COOLER) AND COASTAL LOCATIONS (WARMER) WITH A WEDGE SET-UP
EVOLVING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH THE AXIS
OF DEEPER MOISTURE STILL ORIENTED OVER THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES THE AREA WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND THE AREA WILL ALSO BECOME POSITIONED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD
SUPPORT ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN RAINFALL
WILL END, BUT AT LEAST HALF OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CURRENTLY
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 6Z TAFS, NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS
SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL A SFC TROUGH OR WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES
ACROSS KCHS AND KJZI AROUND DAWN. THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH LIFTING
OF CLOUD BASES. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, CONDITIONS OVER KCHS AND
KJZI ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z. THE SFC TROUGH MAY PUSH
SOUTH, SLOWING OR BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY
LATE THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT, MVFR CEILINGS OVER KSAV MAY LINGER
UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, WINDS AT KSAV MAY REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS, POSSIBLY TO IFR OR
LOWER, ARE EXPECTED IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
TONIGHT: CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE LEG WAS CANCELLED AS
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT THERE BASED ON REPORT FROM 41004
AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BUOY. THE ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR A BIT LONGER FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH MID WEEK.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3
FEET. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF IT AND
INCREASE IN SPEED, BUT CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD PASS THROUGH LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLES THROUGH FRIDAY AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, PRIMARILY AT CHARLESTON HARBOR
(CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES) THROUGH LATE WEEK.
THERE IS CONCERN FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR FROM
BEAUFORT COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...
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