539
FXUS62 KCHS 081119
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY, THEN COLD AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE TN
VALLEY AND INTO THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE MAIN VORT
ENERGY PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH ACROSS NC. AT THE SURFACE, A
SURFACE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHILE HIGH PRESSURE THAT STRETCHES ACROSS AN AREA FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT DAYBREAK, AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION CLOSELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
BE POSITIONED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN A DIMINISHING TREND AS THE TROUGH TRACKS A BIT
MORE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH GA, THE SC UPSTATE, AND INTO
CENTRAL NC. AS THIS AREA OF PRECIP GETS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST IT WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WILL PASS TO THE
NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY. SO, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF LIGHT RAINFALL
OR DRIZZLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING, WITH THE AFTERNOON
FINALLY PROVIDING SOME DRYING. COOL NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS
PERSISTING FOR YET ANOTHER DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR SOUTHEAST SC AND THE LOW TO MID
50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THANKS TO PLENTIFUL MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRY
AIR. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO REVEAL A PERSISTENT SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND LOW STRATUS WILL HANG ON ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. EXPECT A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
LOWS GETTING BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH MID
30S ARE EXPECTED FROM AROUND BEAUFORT SOUTH ALONG THE GA COAST
AND SOME AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH SKIES
FINALLY STARTING TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A DRY, REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT, THEN COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. SUNDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE TEMPS DIP INTO THE MID 20S INLAND DUE TO COLD
ADVECTION.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KCHS AND KJZI: CEILINGS HAVE RECENTLY IMPROVED TO MVFR BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER BACK TO IFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IFR SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS, BUT
SHOULDN'T BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN
PREVAIL FOR THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND. STRATUS SHOULD START TO
SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE BACK TO
VFR.
KSAV: STRATUS BUILD DOWN HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
AND VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN INDICATIVE OF DENSE FOG. THE FOG
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING BACK TO IFR LATE IN THE
EVENING. STRATUS SHOULD START TO SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT AND
CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON BECOMING A SOLID
15-20 KNOTS BY SUNSET. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 25 KNOT
GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER
GA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FEET FOR MOST OF TODAY,
INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET IN THE OUTER REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS LATE IN THE DAY. THEN
OVERNIGHT SEAS WILL TICK UPWARD ABOUT ANOTHER FOOT, BRINGING A
PERIOD OF 6 FT SEAS INTO THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GA WATERS. GIVEN THE INCREASING PROBABILITY OF 25 KNOT
GUSTS AND 6 FT SEAS IN THESE WATERS, WE WILL ISSUE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND RUNNING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE
WATERS. ANOTHER BRIEF BOUT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THESE
SAME MARINE WATERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
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