467
FXUS62 KCHS 091319
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
819 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, THE PATTERN WILL BE BROADLY CYCLONIC AS LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGHING COVERS THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL START THE DAY
STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WITH PLENTIFUL DRY AIR (PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ~0.25") AND NO FORCING, THE FORECAST IS DRY. THE
MAIN CHANGE TODAY WILL BE THE LONG AWAITED SCATTERING ANY
LINGERING LOW STRATUS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY FULL SUN IN THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE RETURN OF THE SUN WILL CERTAINLY BE
WELCOMED, IT DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL BE A WARM DAY. INSTEAD LOW-
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT ANOTHER VERY CHILLY DAY. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE FOR UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SC AND UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT: WITH HIGH PRESSURE ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES, WE SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL YIELD LOWS SOLIDLY IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND,
WITH A TRANSITION ZONE FROM LOW TO MID TO UPPER 30S AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DELAY THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT, NOW SHOWING IT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND MAINTAINING
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 12Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING WHEN THE STRATUS WILL FINALLY
SCATTER OUT AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. BASED ON THE SOLID
APPEARANCE OF THE STRATUS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE SOME TIME. CURRENT THINKING IS IT WILL FIRST OCCUR AT KSAV
BY THE LATE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY KCHS AND KJZI IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED ENOUGH TO CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH NEARSHORE AND GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEGS.
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING 5-10 KNOTS BY SUNSET FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS WILL START OFF THE
MORNING IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE AND LOWER SLOWLY THROUGH TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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