466
FXUS62 KCHS 101740
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY, WITH A COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE BREEZIER WINDS WILL BE
MIXING DOWN SOME WARMER 850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 8 DEGREES C, AND
SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, THOUGH
SOME LOWER 60S ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. AS A
TEMPERATURE INVERSION TRIES TO SET UP WITH THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING, WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS THOUGH
REMAINING BREEZY. THE EXCEPTION FOR THIS OCCURS ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE, WHERE WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WHERE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, WINDS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER
20S THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE ALONG WITH COLD-AIR ADVECTION.
AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSER TO THE MID 20S. THE
COLDEST AIR DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL RIPPLE EAST ON THURSDAY, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT
THE SFC, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE OR CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY, YIELDING WARMING LLVL THICKNESSES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SE
GA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURE SUNDAY MORNING AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
ON SUNDAY, LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG CAA WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, THEN BUILDING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF MOS, LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS, LIKELY
REQUIRING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER FULL SUN ON MONDAY MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, DEEP DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND FRESH CAA. LOW TEMPERATURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOCALIZED LOW 20S INLAND. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 DEGREES.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS FAVORING VALUES IN THE
LOW 60S.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
18Z TAFS - VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT A BRIEF REDUCTION IN WINDS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH WINDS AGAIN BECOME GUSTY ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGEST PERIOD OF WINDS WILL COME
ALONG AND WITH A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWESTERLY.
IN ADDITION, LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS EVENING
AS WINDS 2000 FT ALOFT WILL BE AT 35-40 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST, WHILE
SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT SWITCHED DIRECTION TO MATCH UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY SUNSET, WE EXPECT TO SEE A SOLID 15-20 KNOTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH GUSTS STARTING TO REACH UP TO 25 KNOTS IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM
THE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF TIME FROM THE
LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE
OUTER GA WATERS. AREAL COVERAGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO
LOOK TOO MARGINAL SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
NOW, BUT WILL BE MONITORING OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF
AN UPGRADE IS NECESSARY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP WITH THE INCREASING
WINDS, BECOMING 3-5 FEET BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN PEAKING IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS 6 FT SEAS GET INTO THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS
AND UP TO 7 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH
START TO DIMINISH A BIT AS SUNRISE THURSDAY APPROACHES, BUT WILL
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SIX FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER
GA WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA
WATERS SHOULD END BY NOON. FAIR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...APT
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...APT/NED
MARINE...APT/NED
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