451
FXUS62 KCHS 102344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY, WITH A COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW EARLY THIS EVENING,
CAUSING SW WINDS AHEAD OF IT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S THANKS TO INCREASING PRESSURE ALONG WITH
COLD-AIR ADVECTION. AREAS ALONG THE COAST MAY SEE GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE MID 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S INLAND
INTO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
LONGWAVE H5 TROUGH AXIS WILL RIPPLE EAST ON THURSDAY, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT
THE SFC, DRY HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FAST
MOVING DISTURBANCE OR CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY, YIELDING WARMING LLVL THICKNESSES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS AROUND 30 DEGREES INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S ALONG
THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS SE
GA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT, AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE CWA PRIOR TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY. LOW TEMPERATURE SUNDAY MORNING AREA FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
ON SUNDAY, LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG CAA WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REACH
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, THEN BUILDING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. USING A BLEND OF MOS, LOW
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH, WIND
CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS, LIKELY
REQUIRING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
UNDER FULL SUN ON MONDAY MAY ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION, DEEP DRY AIR, LIGHT WINDS, AND FRESH CAA. LOW TEMPERATURE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S, WITH LOCALIZED LOW 20S INLAND. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 DEGREES.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WAA AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD RETURN TO NORMAL, WITH HIGHS FAVORING VALUES IN THE
LOW 60S.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING, CAUSING SW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NW, ESPECIALLY
BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WHILE THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT TONIGHT, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE OVER A LARGE ENOUGH
TIME PERIOD TO MAINTAIN IN THE TAFS. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE CHS
RADIOSONDE, WE ARE MAINTAINING THE LLWS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TONIGHT: BUOYS OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING INDICATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL OF OUR WATERS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THOUGH, WINDS ARE TAKING A BIT
LONGER TO INCREASE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. THERE REMAINS A SMALL
WINDOW OF TIME FROM THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WHERE WIND GUSTS AROUND GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS. AREAL
COVERAGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUES TO LOOK TOO MARGINAL SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NOW, BUT WILL BE
MONITORING OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL TRENDS TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE
IS NECESSARY. SEAS WILL RAMP UP WITH THE INCREASING WINDS,
BECOMING 3-5 FEET BY EARLY EVENING AND THEN PEAKING IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS 6 FT SEAS GET INTO THE SC NEARSHORE WATERS AND
UP TO 7 FEET IN THE OUTER GA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH
START TO DIMINISH A BIT AS SUNRISE THURSDAY APPROACHES, BUT WILL
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: SIX FT SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ACROSS THE OUTER
GA WATERS THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GA
WATERS SHOULD END BY NOON. FAIR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
MARINE ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A PASSING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ330-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...NED
MARINE...NED
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