893
FXUS62 KCHS 110535
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1235 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REBUILD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, A DEEP TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER
LOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL SWING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE LONG DEPARTED COLD FRONT WELL
OFFSHORE. OVERALL, A VERY QUIET AND CHILLY DAY. AFTER SOME
CIRRUS PASSES THROUGH IN THE MORNING, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
MORNING, GRADUALLY TURNING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL CERTAINLY BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE, WITH LOW 50S
FOR SOUTHEAST SC AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHEAST GA. SUCH
VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT: WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA AND CLEAR SKIES,
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AWAY
FROM THE COASTAL CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS
DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. ALONG THE COAST, MID TO UPPER 30S
WILL BE COMMON.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN SWEEP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. MOISTURE
AND FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RAPIDLY DROP SUNDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH NIPPY WIND CHILLS. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHILE WIND
CHILLS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 DEGREES FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 40S AND
WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT THIS TIME DUE TO CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS, KJZI, AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. WINDS COULD GET A BIT BREEZY THROUGH SUNRISE AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: THE PEAK WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL TO COME AS THE
COLD FRONT IS STILL JUST UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA.
FREQUENT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE WATERS, INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR. THERE IS STILL A
SHORT WINDOW OF TIME WHEN A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND THE OUTER GA WATERS, BUT WE
STILL EXPECT HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BOTH CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING SUCH THAT ALL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
COME DOWN BY LATE MORNING. THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT
NORTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. OVERNIGHT, WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR WHILE WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY. SEAS WILL STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL
THEN BE MOSTLY 2-3 FEET OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY OVER THE
WATERS AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT. AT A MINIMUM, SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR ALL WATERS. A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, PARTICULARLY THE
CHARLESTON NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ330-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH/JRL
MARINE...BSH/JRL
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