822
FXUS62 KCHS 112355
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EST THU DEC 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REBUILD INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION IS KEEPING OUR AREA
VERY DRY, WHILE ALSO CAUSING WINDS TO EASE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY LIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND PROBABLY GO CALM INLAND. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.
BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND NEW MODEL DATA, WE TICKED LOW
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT, ESPECIALLY FURTHER INLAND. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR, WITH A FEW OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS DIPPING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. ALONG THE COAST, MID TO UPPER 30S WILL BE
COMMON.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
BECOME INCREASING MORE CYCLONIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A
POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON SUNDAY.
THE TROUGH WILL HELP DRIVE A BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS SOUTH INTO
THE UNITED STATES WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK
QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GRADUALLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S FRIDAY AND
THE MID-UPPER 60S SATURDAY. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE BEACHES.
SUNDAY: SUNDAY WILL USHER IN A QUICK AND DRAMATIC CHANGE AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER
SETTLES INTO THE LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH
FROPA SUNDAY, BUT THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND THE
SOUTH BY THE EVENING HOURS. A RIBBON OF PWATS >1" IS FORECAST TO
ALIGN WITH THE FRONT. WHILE THERE IS NO MEANINGFUL FORCING
NOTED ALOFT, THERE MAY BE BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS. A HANDFUL OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ALONG WITH THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS, DO SHOW SOME
MEASURABLE QPF SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ITS GREAT TO SEE THE 11/13Z
NBM FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND. CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED AS A RESULT. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSELY TIED TO FROPA
TIMING AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MAY FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR NOW, HIGHS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S BEFORE FROPA, BUT SOME CHANGES MAY BE NEEDED ONCE
CONFIDENCE IN FROPA TIMING INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A BRIEF, BUT INTENSE OUTBREAK OF
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS PASSES THROUGH. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO THE BE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON, EVEN
COLDER THAN THE ONE THAT BROUGHT A WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND COLD
WIND CHILLS THE REGION BACK IN NOVEMBER. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S INLAND TO UPPER 20S AT THE
BEACHES. LINGERING NORTH WINDS OF 5-15 MPH AIDED BY SOME PERSISTENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO TO UPPER TEENS RANGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH IS WELL
INTO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AND DIPPING INTO EXTREME
COLD WARNING CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IN REACHING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS HIGH (LREF PROBABILITIES: 75-100%, HIGHEST
INLAND) WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REACHING EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA (LREF PROBABILITIES 15-25% INLAND; 0-10% COAST). HIGHS
MONDAY WILL ONLY PEAK INTO THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO THE MID 30S AT THE
BEACHES. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH, THERE IS
A CHANCE SOME DEGREE OF WIND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
AGAIN, WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN SPOTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THESE LEVELS IS ONLY IN
THE MODERATE RANGE THIS FAR OUT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: TEMPERATURE WILL QUICKLY MODERATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. LEVELS COULD ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOME LOW-END RAIN CHANCES MAY
RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST,
IF A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND IMPULSES OF
VORTICITY ALOFT EJECT ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
LAKE WINDS: WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ON LAKE MOULTRIE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
MIXING PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT WINDS SURGING ABOVE 20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE
TONIGHT: EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS MOSTLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR WHILE
WIND DIRECTION BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. SEAS WILL BE MOSTLY 2-3
FEET OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD
CENTERS ON THE INCREASING RISK FOR ELEVATED WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THERE IS A MODERATE
RISK FOR GALES WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING GALE WARNING
CRITERIA, AT LEAST IN FREQUENT GUSTS, INCREASING TO 40-70%
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 85% OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE VERY LEAST, SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES, BUT GALE
WATCHES/WARNINGS MAY ALSO BE NEEDED AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.
SEAS COULD BUILD AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCHS: 39/1943
KCXM: 38/1904
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCXM: 23/1943
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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