941
FXUS62 KCHS 141157
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TODAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY: ALOFT, A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, HELPING FORCE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST WIND
WILL HELP MAINTAIN MILD CONDITIONS LOCALLY THROUGH MORNING HOURS,
WITH HIGH TEMPS LIKELY TO OCCUR EARLY PRIOR TO FROPA, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 INLAND TO LOW-MID 60S NEAR THE COAST.
HOWEVER, EXPECT TEMPS TO BEGIN A COOLING TREND BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS POST FRONT. LATEST
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE, BUT INDICATE A
PERIOD OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SHOWERS DURING MORNING HOURS.
QPF WILL REMAIN LOW, MAINLY BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. PRECIP LIKELY ENDS WITH FROPA (AROUND
NOON), BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (20-30 MPH) WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MOST AREAS AS STRONG LOW-LVL MIXING OCCURS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION.
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE AS A RESULT,
STARTING AT 4 PM.
TONIGHT: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST, SETTING UP A DRY, BUT COLD NIGHT. GUSTY AND DRY
CONDITIONS POST FROPA WILL LIKELY HAVE DRIED OUT ALL SURFACES DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN LITTLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION, THUS
LIMITING ANY CONCERN OF SLIPPERY ROADS/BLACK ICE DURING THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE LOW WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO THE REGION WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND AND NORTH TO LOW-
MID 20S NEAR THE SC/GA BEACHES AND SOUTH OF I-16 ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. TEMPS COULD APPROACH RECORD LOW LEVELS (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION). THESE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS TO 15-25 MPH (STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST) SUPPORT WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE 11-20 DEGREE RANGE. COLDEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AREA AND PERHAPS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES. WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 10 DEGREES, BUT THE COVERAGE
AND DURATION OF THE EVENT IS QUITE LIMITED PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
THUS, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM 10 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY, THEN
BEGIN TO MODERATE BY MID WEEK.
MONDAY: DEEP, COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION.
EVEN WITH FULL SUN, HIGHS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT MUCH PAST 40,
WHICH ARE NEAR RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR THE DATE! LUCKILY, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT, REDUCING ANY WIND CHILL EFFECTS. BY MONDAY NIGHT,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OFF CENTERED OVER THE AREA, THEN IT WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE NIGHT. WITH LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY DRY LOW LEVELS, EXPECT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT CLOSER TO 30 NEAR THE COAST.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, BUT CURRENT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST KEEPS TEMPS
JUST ABOVE THE 20 DEGREE THRESHOLD. EVEN WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST,
THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS THAT BRIEFLY TOUCH 20 DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES, REACHING TO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE GENERAL ZONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO BRIEFLY
BE INTERRUPTED BY A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
HAVE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE UPPER FLOW REVERTS BACK TO GENERALLY
ZONAL, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. MODELS
DIVERGE AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER FRONT AND THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION TO APPROACH THE AREA POSSIBLY BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE WITH WHETHER OR NOT THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ANY
IMPACT IN OUR AREA IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z
THIS MORNING. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT COULD
PRODUCE MVFR CIGS TEMPORARILY IN THE 13-15Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME,
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z. AT SAV, TEMPO MVFR
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 15-17Z, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS (20-25 KT) ARE
ALSO LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 15Z SUNDAY TO 08Z MONDAY,
BEFORE STARTING A DOWNWARD TREND (GUSTS 15-20 KT) THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR
KCHS, KJZI AND KSAV.
THURSDAY: ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SHOWERS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WILL
EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO A QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST, LEADING TO DETERIORATING WIND/SEA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WILL
GRADUALLY RAMP UP TO 15-20 KT BY LATE MORNING, THEN QUICKLY TURN
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS SHOULD GUST UPWARDS TO 25-35 KT, STRONGEST
OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR ALL WATERS, THE EXCEPTION BEING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD WITH
WINDS SURGING ACROSS LOCAL WATERS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, REACHING 5-7 FT ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS, BUT TOPPING
OUT NEAR 8-9 FT AROUND 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND
ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN JUST
EAST OF THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
MAINLY WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. A COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WINDS LIKELY
TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY, BUT STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT LEVELS.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCHS: 15/1962
KCXM: 23/1943
KSAV: 19/1962
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 15:
KCHS: 39/1943
KCXM: 38/1904
KSAV: 38/1904
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354-374.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM
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