650
FXUS62 KCHS 191156
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY, RESULTING
IN AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND BREEZY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: WARM AND MOIST AIR RESIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING INLAND ZONES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ENHANCED LINE OF
CONVECTION WITH THE ARRIVING FRONT AND A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. STRONG SHEAR AND MID-LVL
LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-7.5 C/KM RANGE COULD HELP MAINTAIN A BROKEN
LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS TOWARD THE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT SFC INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED. SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS COULD BE NEEDED.
LAKE WIND: STRONG LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA,
BUT LOW-LVL MIXING IS NOT FAVORABLE IN A WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ACROSS COOLER LAKE WATERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LAKE DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS AND COULD TEMPORARILY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-45 MPH RANGE. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY EARLY MORNING.
TODAY: A SFC COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY, LIKELY
EXITING THE REGION OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. A POTENT MID-LVL
TROUGH WILL FOLLOW TO FRONT, PIVOTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-
ATLANTIC STATES DURING MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, PLACING THE LOCAL
AREA ALONG ITS SOUTHERN EDGE. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A RATHER DIFFUSE
LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND AREAS EARLY MORNING, WHICH ERODE
QUICKLY WHILE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DUE
TO CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE SFC FRONT. HOWEVER,
BREEZY SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS (20-25 MPH) ARE EXPECTED DURING MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ACROSS
THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STILL WARM INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S
(WARMEST ACROSS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR) AS A NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE WIND
DEVELOPS OFF THE SFC AND SKIES BECOME CLEAR DURING PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION BY LATE
DAY, RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WEST WINDS WILL
BECOME NOTICEABLY WEAKER, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT/CALM BY LATE
EVENING AND THEREFORE SETTING UP A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO MID-
UPPER 30S ALONG/EAST OF I-95. LOCATIONS SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW-MID
40S NEAR THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME, WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. OUTSIDE OF THIS, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT AS A SEA-
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE JAMES BAY AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC, MODELS SHOW AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND INTO OUR AREA BY MONDAY. THAT
BEING SAID, OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE MEAGER, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, HAVE AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY PRIOR TO FROPA, WITH
TEMPERATURES THEN DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MONDAY IN
ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME,
ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 70S BY CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD, AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS
QUICKLY PUSHING THROUGH AT CHS/JZI/SAV EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO HIGHER MVFR
CIGS BETWEEN 13-14Z, FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY ONCE FROPA OCCURS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS (15-25 KT)
WILL TURN WEST/NORTHWEST WITH FROPA BY AROUND 14Z, THEN PERSIST
FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE ACROSS
THE AREA, RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA.
MARINE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS
UPWARDS TO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND SEAS THAT BUILD UP TO 6-9 FT
(STRONGEST/LARGEST) ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND NEARSHORE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.) SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS LOCAL WATERS EARLY
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE SUPPORTING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, A LINE OF GUSTY
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY
MORNING, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY LARGE WIND SHIFT AND HIGHER
GUSTS. MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND OR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED EARLY DAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL WATERS
THIS MORNING, BUT WILL START TO COME DOWN AT VARIOUS TIMES
DURING THE DAY, STARTING WITH THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATE MORNING,
THEN SOUTHERN NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEARSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS (6-7 FT) WILL LINGER DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND NEARSHORE WATERS
OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST, SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10- 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KT
AT TIMES. NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED.
MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES (THE ONE
EXCEPTION BEING THE HARBOR).
TUESDAY: NORTHEAST WINDS TURNING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT RELAXING TO 3 TO 6 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
354.
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...DPB/SST
MARINE...DPB/SST
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