874
FXUS62 KCHS 191749
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TODAY, RESULTING
IN AN INFLUX OF DRIER AIR AND BREEZY WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST
AS OF THIS MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. AT THE UPPER LEVELS, A POTENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE
DOWNSTREAM 250HPA JET STREAK AS OF 12Z THIS MORNING WAS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE 12Z
KCHS RAOB SOUNDING DEPICTED THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS PERFECTLY, WITH
NEARLY 50 KNOTS AT 2K FT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NW WIND GUSTS 20 TO
30 MPH ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS MIXING OCCURS. ACROSS LAKE
MOULTRIE GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING OFF
TO NEAR CALM BY MIDNIGHT.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. AS THE WINDS GO CALM,
COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
REGIME WILL SET UP TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP
INTO THE LOW 30S INLAND WITH UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME, WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. OUTSIDE OF THIS, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT AS A SEA-
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE JAMES BAY AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY, WITH CAD BUILDING
DOWN THE COAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID, OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE MEAGER, KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, HAVE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY PRIOR TO FROPA,
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MONDAY IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME,
ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 70S BY CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD, AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY W/NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE WATERS
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. THE
SCAS WILL DROP AT VARIOUS TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS GUSTS WANE. HIGHER
SEAS WILL LINGER IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE
20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KT
AT TIMES. NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL FORCE A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES (THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE HARBOR), WITH
WINDS PEAKING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GALE PROBS REMAIN LESS
THAN 10% AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
MIDWEEK AS RIDGING MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352-
354.
NEAR TERM...CPM
SHORT TERM...CEB/SST
LONG TERM...CEB/SST
AVIATION...CEB/CPM/SST
MARINE...CEB/CPM/SST
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