139
FXUS62 KCHS 192333
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING AT THE SURFACE. AS THE
WINDS GO CALM, COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES, A VERY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING REGIME WILL SET UP TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOW 30S INLAND WITH UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF
FROPA, ALLOWING DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THIS TIME, WITH DIRECTION SHIFTING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH DRIFTS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC. OUTSIDE OF THIS, EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO RISE A BIT AS A SEA-
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S UNDER
SUNNY SKIES.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS QUASI-ZONAL HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE STRENGTHENS SOUTH OF THE JAMES BAY AREA. MEANWHILE, AT THE
SFC, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY, WITH CAD BUILDING
DOWN THE COAST LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THAT BEING SAID, OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE MEAGER, KEEPING
THE FORECAST DRY. IN REGARD TO TEMPERATURES, HAVE AFTERNOON
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY PRIOR TO FROPA,
WITH TEMPERATURES THEN DIPPING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S
MONDAY IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ALSO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THIS TIME,
ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL. CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE 60S TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 70S BY CHRISTMAS
EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE MILD, AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF FROPA.
MARINE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND SEAS HAVE
DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER ALL MARINE ZONES, THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS
WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 15 KT
AT TIMES. NO ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
WILL FORCE A REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DOWN THE COAST
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR ALL ZONES (THE ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE HARBOR), WITH
WINDS PEAKING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GALE PROBS REMAIN LESS
THAN 10% AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO
MIDWEEK AS RIDGING MOVES MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350-
374.
NEAR TERM...CPM/JRL
SHORT TERM...CEB
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CPM/JRL
MARINE...CEB/CPM
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