844
FXUS62 KCHS 220600
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNRISE: A DRY COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR AREA, AS THEY
FOLLOW THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH.
LAKE WINDS: OBSERVATIONS OUT OF PNOS1 HAVE NOT INCREASED AS MUCH
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE AREA OF HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES
SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE, WHICH THE SENSOR PROBABLY ISN'T PICKING UP. DEPENDING ON
OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER OUR AREA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WELL OFF
OUR COAST BY TONIGHT. THOUGH, IT'S PERIPHERY WILL REACH WELL
INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. RH VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S OR UPPER
TEENS VERY FAR INLAND TODAY. BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH
TO THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT, MOISTURE
GRADUALLY INCREASES, WITH A NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN CLOUDS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S VERY
FAR INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, ALLOWING
HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE
AID OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THUS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TO BE COMMON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS WILL
ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASING INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A POTENT MID-
LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A STRONGER MID-LEVEL LOW
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE NORTHEAST, WHILE OTHER MEMBERS
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AND QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE DEEPER WAVE WOULD FAVOR NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHILE THE LESS AMPLIFIED
WAVE AND FASTER MOVEMENT WOULD FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
06Z TAFS: A DRY COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING AND
RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING OVER OUR AREA, AS THEY FOLLOW THE FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES. THOUGH, NE
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS MORNING, CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN EASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: A DRY COLD FRONT IS SOUTH OF OUR WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND RAPIDLY MOVING AWAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, WITH WAVES BUILDING AS WELL. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS REMAIN ON TRACK. HOWEVER,
WIND GUSTS FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAVE NOT INCREASED AS MUCH
AS EXPECTED. DEPENDING ON OBSERVATIONS THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED EARLY.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WELL OFF
OUR COAST BY TONIGHT. THOUGH, IT'S PERIPHERY WILL REACH WELL
INTO OUR WATERS. AN ELEVATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, HIGHEST FAR OFFSHORE.
WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING, WITH SEAS PEAKING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OCEAN
WATERS TODAY. THOUGH, THEY SHOULD EXPIRE FOR THE WATERS WITHIN
20 NM BY MIDNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TUESDAY: SCA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO 6 FT SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS
THEN RELAX HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 4 FT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO MARINE HEADLINES. WIND
GUSTS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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