926
FXUS62 KCHS 221139
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
639 AM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL DEPART THE REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID- APPALACHIANS
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WELL OFF OUR COAST
BY TONIGHT. THOUGH, IT'S PERIPHERY WILL REACH WELL INTO OUR
AREA. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RH
VALUES COULD DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S OR UPPER TEENS VERY FAR
INLAND TODAY. BUT THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH TO THE MID 60S ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTH. OVERNIGHT, MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES, WITH A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN CLOUDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S VERY FAR INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 40S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY, ALLOWING
HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH THE
AID OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THUS, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S TO BE COMMON CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. LOWS WILL
ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FRIDAY, WITH FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASING INTO THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A POTENT MID-
LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON BAY. THIS LOW COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES.
HOWEVER, MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THIS LOW. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A STRONGER MID-LEVEL LOW
AND SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE NORTHEAST, WHILE OTHER MEMBERS
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER WAVE AND QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE DEEPER WAVE WOULD FAVOR NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHILE THE LESS AMPLIFIED
WAVE AND FASTER MOVEMENT WOULD FAVOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AGAIN MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, EXPECT
DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
12Z TAFS: VFR. NE WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS
MORNING, CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN EASING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK:
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WELL
OFF OUR COAST BY TONIGHT. THOUGH, IT'S PERIPHERY WILL REACH WELL
INTO OUR WATERS. AN ELEVATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
YIELD GUSTY NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, HIGHEST FAR OFFSHORE.
WINDS SHOULD PEAK THIS MORNING, WITH SEAS PEAKING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER INTO TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OCEAN WATERS
TODAY. THOUGH, THEY SHOULD EXPIRE FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 20 NM
BY MIDNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND
20 NM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
TUESDAY: SCA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO 6 FT SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS
THEN RELAX HEADING INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 4 FT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO MARINE HEADLINES. WIND
GUSTS 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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