242
FXUS62 KCHS 222147
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
447 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WITH NO
CHANGES ANTICIPATED IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, THE QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL, HOWEVER GIVEN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE
IDEAL. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 40S
INLAND WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES. FOG OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME, AS NBM
AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES <3 MILES ARE ALL <10%.
ADDITIONALLY, CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR FOG FORMATION EITHER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
TUESDAY THROUGH CHRISTMAS: SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A
STRONG H5 RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE GULF, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DURING THE
PERIOD, AN AMPLIFIED WAVE WILL RIPPLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND,
PUSHING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA UNDER DRY NW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC,
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST, WITH A POSSIBLE DRY COLD FRONT LATE CHRISTMAS. OVERALL,
THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRY AND VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SHOULD TREND WARMER THROUGH
CHRISTMAS, WITH CHRISTMAS TEMPERATURES FEATURING LOWS AROUND 50
AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
VERY MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A SHALLOW LONGWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST,
RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES MAY COOL BY 15 DEGREES BY
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 DEGREES.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
23/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 24/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO FOG OR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SC/NC BORDER WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELEVATED NE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, ELEVATED SEAS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6 TO 7
FT IN THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR INTO TONIGHT.
TUESDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LINGERING 6 FT
SEAS. MARINE CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE TUESDAY EVENING, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS DROPPING TO 4 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NO MARINE
HEADLINES. THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
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