564
FXUS62 KCHS 230554
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH SUNRISE: RADAR INDICATES VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE GA
COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE GA COAST. WHILE THESE
LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER OUR
ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH
LOWER, OR PERHAPS EVEN CAUSE THEM TO BARELY RISE IN A FEW SPOTS.
THE CURRENT LOW FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF LONGWAVE
RIDGING FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH,
IT'S FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL SPLIT OFF INTO ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR
WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS WILL YIELD DRY CONDITIONS
FOR OUR AREA. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE OVERNIGHT BEING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS AND THE BEACHES, TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE AND
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS. MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE, AS A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTH SHOULD STALL OR WASH OUT. PERHAPS THE MOST INTERESTING
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST EACH DAY, WHILE LOWS ONLY DROP TO
THE LOW 50S. THESE VALUES ARE ROUGHLY 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY BRINGS A
NOTABLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BRING A BIG THREAT FOR RAINFALL WITH EXTENDED
GUIDANCE INDICATING LESS THAN A 30% CHANCE FOR 0.01" IN 24
HOURS. SO MAIN IMPACT WILL BE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS
SOME GUSTY WINDS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
06Z TAFS: VFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNRISE: BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS AND SEAS ARE
TRENDING LOWER, SO WE LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WITHIN 20
NM EXPIRE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE GA
WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OUTER BANKS
THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
THOUGH, IT'S FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY WILL SPLIT OFF INTO ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, BUT IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH OUR WATERS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
VEER AS TIME PROGRESSES AND SEAS WILL TREND LOWER. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SHOULD EXPIRE THIS
AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET.
WINDS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...ETM
MARINE...ETM
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